FOREX: NZD Rebounds From Post RBNZ Lows, HK/China Equities Firmer

Feb-19 02:48

The USD is off earlier highs, with NZD rebounding from post RBNZ lows. We were last near 1289.75 for the BBDXY, still little net change for the session. 

  • NZD/USD got to lows of 0.5678 in the aftermath of the RBNZ easing decision. The central bank cut rates by 50bps as forecast and the statement indicated further easing was coming.
  • We sit higher now, last near 0.5710/55, a +0.55% rebound from earlier session lows. RBNZ Governor Orr has stated in his press conference that 25bps cuts at the next policy meetings (April and May) is likely if the economy evolves as expected.
  • NZD/USD seemed to react to these comments, with the market maybe looking for a faster easing pace, although Orr's comments are broadly consistent with the earlier OCR projections. The other factor in play for NZD was the rebound in Hong Kong and China equities. The HK HSI tech index was down 2.3% but rebounded back into positive territory.
  • AUD/USD is also up from lows, the pair last near 0.6355, after earlier lows of 0.6342. The Q4 wages data released earlier didn't shift FX sentiment. The AUD/NZD cross got to highs of 1.1175 post the RBNZ, but now sits close to session lows, last near 1.1125/30.
  • USD/JPY is little changed for the session, last close to 152.05. We heard from board member Takata earlier, who stated that further gradual policy adjustments were likely.
  • The equity tone has also likely influence yen from a cross standpoint. NZD/JPY got to lows of 86.17 earlier, but we now sit back at 86.80/85. 

Historical bullets

ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Rallies Follow Trump & Xi Jinping Call

Jan-20 02:41

China and Hong Kong equities are rallying, buoyed by optimism over improved US-China relations following a positive pre-inauguration call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The CSI 300 Index rose as much as 1.2%, led by gains in tech stocks like Shengyi Technology (+8.9%) and Eoptolink Tech (+7.4%). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is 2.3% higher, while the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.25%, with e-commerce giants JD.com (+5.8%) and Alibaba (+3%) driving the rally.

  • The market also reacted to China leaving its loan prime rates unchanged, with the one-year rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Education shares advanced after government guidance promoting AI and stricter curriculum controls, with New Oriental Education & Technology rising 6%. Additionally, reports of re-lending facilities supporting A-share buybacks have boosted sentiment, benefiting privately-run firms.
  • Traders aggressively bought call options on Chinese stock-linked ETFs like FXI and KWEB on Friday, driven by optimism over a positive Trump-Xi call signaling potential easing in trade tensions. This activity pushed one-month implied volatility on FXI to its highest since mid-December, with bullish bets also driving significant gains in both ETFs.
  • Overall, the markets are balancing optimism with caution over potential trade tariffs under Trump's incoming administration.

CHINA PRESS: First-tier Housing Market Stabilises Further

Jan-20 02:15

China’s property market has shown recent signs of stabilisation, with home prices in first-tier cities trending upwards for three consecutive months and transaction volume remaining at a high level, Securities Daily reported, citing Zhang Bo, director at 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute. Prices of new homes in tier-one cities rose by 0.2% m/m in December, compared to November’s 0.0%. Existing housing was 0.0%, up from the previous 0.1% decline. Major cities' real-estate markets are expected to boom after the Chinese New Year if authorities keep offering policy support, the newspaper said, citing Zhang.

CHINA PRESS: China Provinces 2025 Targets Demonstrates Positivity

Jan-20 02:15

Provincial economic targets of around 5% or above in 2025 demonstrate positive macro trends and intensified support policies, according to Zhang Yiqun, deputy director at the Chinese Society of Finance. Zhang said building a unified domestic market and enhancing confidence will be the primary task this year, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment. Mingming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said China has shifted to high-quality development and needs to incorporate consumption alongside investment and exports as a growth driver.