US: NY Fed: Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
Jul-13 15:51
NY Fed explains the latest WEI increase to 1.37% from 1.12% the week prior is "due to rises in consumer confidence and fuel sales, and a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset falls in retail sales, steel production, tax withholding, railroad traffic, and electricity output."
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
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US TSYS: Front End Cheapening Impetus Reverses Post CPI Steepening
Jun-13 15:43
- The combination of the 1100ET announcement of decent increases to bill sizes plus Fed OIS implied rates pushing higher (Dec’23 +5bps on the day) has helped spur some further cheapening bias at the front-end with 2YY briefly touching highs since Mar 10 before pulling back 1-1.5bps for still +5bps on the day.
- The front end action has dragged the rest of the yield curve higher still, for an intraday flattening in a reversal of post-CPI steepening, with 2 through 10 benchmark yields +5-6bps on the day after the latest paring of losses.
- TYU3 also briefly pushed session lows of 113-02+, through yesterday’s 113-03 and nearer to key support at 112-29+ (May 6/30 lows) after which would lie 112-16 (76.4% retrace of Mar 2 - May 4 rally).
BELGIUM AUCTION PREVIEW: Jun 19 OLO Lines For Sale
Jun-13 15:41
Belgium to sell the following bonds at the June 19 auction, sizes TBA:
- 0.00% Oct-27 OLO (ISIN: BE0000351602, OL91)
- 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666, OL97)
- 3.30% Jun-54 OLO (ISIN: BE0000358672, OL98)
STIR: BoE Seen Going Higher For Longer, While ECB Pricing Stagnates
Jun-13 15:37
Today's post-UK jobs market price action, and parade of BoE speakers, have effectively added a 25bp hike to the BoE's tightening cycle, now seen peaking in Feb 2024 at 5.85% (up 28bp on the day, and 135bp from current rates).
- That's higher and longer than previously expected - coming into today, the peak was seen arriving in Dec 2023. There's a chance seen of a 50bp hike this month (around 20% implied).
- While an impressive increase, it's not even the biggest single day move of the past month for peak rate pricing, which was the +33bp on May 24 following much stronger-than-expected April CPI data; that was followed up by +18bp on May 25.
- Meanwhile ECB policy is seen as much more predictable and peak hike pricing continues to effectively stand still: +1.5bp today to 3.80%, implying 56bp of further hikes in this cycle, including 96% probability of a quarter point raise this week (as seen in MNI's meeting preview).
