US DATA: NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations Relatively Contained In October
Nov-07 16:14
The NY Fed consumer survey for October saw 1Y inflation expectations ease back to keep them relatively contained whilst 3Y and 5Y inflation expectations saw little change.
- 1Y inflation expectations: 3.24% in October after 3.38% in Sept, back close to the 3.20% in Aug.
- They remain below the recent peak of 3.6% in April with the announcement of reciprocal tariffs although are a little elevated compared to the 3.0% seen shortly before that.
- 3Y inflation expectations: Near unchanged at 3.00% after 3.05% in Sept, falling back to the 3.00% that it’s seen in seven of the latest nine months now.
- 5Y inflation expectations: Essentially unchanged at 3.00% after 2.97% in Sept and 2.93% in Aug.
- A reminder that these metrics within the NY Fed survey have shown much less of a surge in inflation expectations under the Trump administration than has been the case with its U.Mich counterpart.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-08 16:13
- EUR/USD: Oct10 $1.1500(E1.5bln), $1.1600(E1.5bln), $1.1625-30(E1.1bln), $1.1650(E1.8bln), $1.1700(E1.9bln), $1.1740-50(E2.5bln), $1.1780-00(E2.8bln); Oct13 $1.1700-15(E1.4bln), $1.1750-60(E3.6bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct14 $0.6500(A$1.0bln), $0.6580-00(A$1.2bln)
US STOCKS: Midday Equity Roundup: Looking to Make New Record Highs
Oct-08 16:11
- Stocks are climbing higher ahead midday Wednesday, SPX eminis and Nasdaq indexes nearing yesterday's record highs (the DJIA still off last week's record high of 47,049.64).
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 196.92 points (0.42%) at 46,800.2, S&P E-Minis up 37.5 points (0.55%) at 6,799 vs. 6,802.75 record high, the Nasdaq up 192.1 points (0.8%) at 22,981.02 vs. 23,006.07 record high.
- Information Technology and Industrials sector shares led gainers in the first half, semiconductor and hardware makers supporting the Tech sector: Dell Technologies +8.32%, Arista Networks +6.67%, Advanced Micro Devices +5.81%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise +5.50% and Tyler Technologies +5.25%.
- The Industrial sector was buoyed by: Caterpillar +3.71%, JB Hunt Transport Services +3.49%, Quanta Services +3.32% and Old Dominion Freight Line +3.25%.
- On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Energy sector shares underperformed ahead midday, weighing on Staples: J M Smucker -2.66%, Tyson Foods -2.01%, General Mills -1.71% and Sysco Corp -1.64%. Meanwhile, EQT -2.43%, Coterra Energy -1.98%, Halliburton -1.71% and Baker Hughes -1.50% led decliners in the Energy sector.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Finding Support Below The 50-Day EMA
Oct-08 16:01
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-00 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-21+ @ 16:57 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 112-12+/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
Treasuries continue to find support just below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-12+. The trend structure remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to undermine the trend and this would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.
