EU HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NOVNVX): Capital Markets Update
(NOVNVX; Aa3/AA-/WD)
Solid Update
• Rolls forward sales guidance which had been for +6% CAGR 2024-29 to now +5-6% CAGR 2025-2030.
• Notes a strong pipeline of 30+ potential high-value assets. 8 Potential multi-billion dollar launches in the mid-term.
• Expects Core Margin to return to 40% by 2029. 3Q25 was 39.3%
• Raises Peak Sales guidance for Kisqali to $10bn+ and for Scemblix to $4bn+
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GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt Opening Calls, 92.83/92.85.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening Calls
Estox 50: +0.21%, Dax: +0.23%, CAC: +0.19%, FTSE +0.43%, SMI +0.23%.
EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 180.44 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.00 @ 07:51 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 175.22 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend structure in EURJPY is bullish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Recent strength above resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 175.22, the 20-day EMA - a level pierced last Friday. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
