Midday GFS 15day forecast goes warmer. Production revises higher, returning some but not all of its d/d losses
- Northeast demand is flat to this morning at 36.5 bcf/d
- To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, NYC lost 47.7 HDDs, for a total of 234.89 HDDs. This is 1 less than the 10yr normal.
- To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, Columbus OH lost 6.7 HDDs, for a total of 207.34 This is 73.7 HDDs less than the 10yr normal.
- Within the region, total End User demand revised up 110 mmcf to17.34 bcf/d. Comprised of 47% power generation, 38% rescom, and 16% industrial.
- Net outflows from the region revised 240 mmcf lower to 14.59 bcf/d.
- Production in the region revised 560 mmcf higher to 35.87 bcf/d, shrinking the d/d deficit seen this morning in half to 0.86 bcfd lower d/d. All of this revision is from the Appalachian shale play
- Imports from Canada are flat at 580 mcf/d today.
- Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG are flat at 843 mcf/d.
- This puts the daily supply deficit at around 0.12 bcf/d widening by 1.62 bcf/d on the day.
- The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data is from Bloomberg.