EURGBP TECHS: Northbound

• Gold registered another all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by the escalation in US-China trade tensions and Powell's relative easing bias late on Tuesday.
• Spot rose to a peak at $4,218/oz earlier in the session, before paring gains, with price currently up by 1.3% at $4,198.
• This week’s extension in gold reinforces current bullish conditions, with the move up maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. After piercing the $4,200 handle today, sights turn to $4,239.7 next, a Fibonacci projection point.
• The trend is in overbought territory, however. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3,918.7, the 20-day EMA.
• Meanwhile, silver has also rebounded by 2.9% to $52.9/oz today, keeping the precious metal just below this week’s record high ($53.546).
• Bloomberg writes that the silver market has been impacted by a lack of liquidity in London, prompting prices to soar above futures in New York.
• Trend signals in silver remain bullish, and a break above yesterday’s record high would turn attention to $54.00 round number resistance next.
• Elsewhere, crude has extended losses amid demand concerns due to the trade tensions, as well as rising global supplies.
• WTI Nov 25 is down by 0.6% at $58.3/bbl.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact, with sights on $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at $62.31, the 50-day EMA.

Thursday's Retail Sales, PPI and Business Inventories suspended due to the Gov shutdown. On the other hand, Weekly Jobless Claims on a state level likely to be gradually parsed out. 

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 10/16/2025 8:30 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-19.4, --)
• 10/16/2025 8:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (23.2, 10.0)
• 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Waller moderated discussion Council on Foreign Relations
• 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Barr on stablecoins
• 10/16 0900 Fed Gov Miran moderated discussion Int Trade Center
• 10/16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (32, 33)
• 10/16 1000 Fed VC Bowman, Stress Testing Research Conf (text, no Q&A)
• 10/16 1615 Fed Gov Miran moderated discussion Semafor
• 10/16 1800 MN Fed Kashkari town hall South Dakota
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• RES 4: 154.80 High Feb 12 
• RES 3: 154.39 76.4% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 153.82 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing    
• RES 1: 153.27 High Oct 10
• PRICE: 151.43 @ 15:45 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: 150.90 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 149.92 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 148.63 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 146.92 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 

A bullish trend condition in USDJPY remains intact and the pullback from last week’s high appears corrective. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. The next important support lies at 149.92, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, clearance of 153.27, the Oct 10 high, would resume the uptrend and open 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point.