POWER: NordNed Power Link Outage Extended Until 17 October

• RES 4: 6748.50 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 6700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6685.25 1.00 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing    
• RES 1: 6662.75 High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 6652.00 @ 07:27 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 6547.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 
• SUP 3: 6443.27 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4:6417.25 Low Aug 12 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6685.25, a Fibonacci projection, and the 6700.00 handle. On the downside, initial support to watch is 6547.03, the 20-day EMA. 

• The Dollar is overall closer to flat against G10s, but zooming out of the Charts, main focus are squarely on the Aussie and the NOK, the best two performing currencies so far in September.
• The AUD is holding onto gains following the lower than expected Chinese Retail Sales and IP Overnight, but the AUD is still just short of the new 2025 printed high of 0.6669 achieved on Friday.
• Regardless, the next upside target is now seen at 0.6688, the November 2024 high, and there has been plenty of bullish AUD play via Options from Funds.
• USDNOK has printed a new couple of Years low, lowest since January 2023, and market participants will look at the next Psychological area of 9.8000 next.
• Year To Date, the SEK holds the crown, the stokkie is up 18.64% for that period, but the USDSEK has so far found some support at the 9.3000 mark last Week.

The Norwegian trade surplus widened to NOK60.1bln in August (vs NOK54.6bln in July), but on an annual comparison trade flows softened. 

• Exports totalled NOK143.4bln, 5.2% below the NOK151.2bln seen in August 2024. This was driven by lower oil and gas exports. Statistics Norway notes that a lower oil price has weighed on export values, with export volumes (in barrels) actually reaching their highest since May 2024. On the other hand, lower natural gas exports were a function of both price and volume effects: “High imports of liquefied natural gas, and more flexible rules for gas stock levels among EU member states, are pushing down demand and gas prices in August, says senior advisor Jan Olav Rørhus, “
• Imports totalled NOK83.3bln, down from NOK88.4bln in July and NOK92.0bln in August 2024 (-9.4% Y/Y). A 1.2% Y/Y strengthening in the NOK I-44 effective exchange rate index may have contributed to weaker imported price pressures, reducing the NOK value of imports.
• Although Norway runs a structural trade surplus thanks to its commodity exports, the “mainland” trade balance, which strips out these products, is generally in deficit. Mainland exports increased on a M/M and Y/Y basis in August, mostly due to “deliveries to several large foreign energy infrastructure projects in the last three months”.
• As such, the mainland trade deficit was NOK20.3bln in August, down from NOK28.6bln in July and NOK32.6bln in August 2024.