POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: France Dec Power Falls on Nuclear Forecast
Oct-14 15:32
The German front-month power base-load contract is trading higher with front-week gains and higher EU gas prices. France December power is declining with EdF raising the 2025 nuclear generation target.
- Germany Base Power NOV 25 up 2.1% at 99.08 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power DEC 25 down 1.7% at 70.7 EUR/MWh
- Nordic Base Power NOV 25 up 2.3% at 54.5 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 76.94 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas NOV 25 up 1.1% at 31.815 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal OCT 25 down 0.1% at 89 USD/MT
- TTF front month is trading higher, offsetting yesterday’s losses but still towards the lower end of its recent range, with no sign yet of any significant cold spell in NW Europe. US-China trade tensions and increased Egyptian LNG exports are adding pressure.
- EUAs are trending down for the third consecutive session, after a late selloff on Friday with US President Trump threatening additional tariffs of Chinese goods. UKAs are also falling on Tuesday, tracking moves in EUAs.
- The average price of European PPAs in October is on track to drop from September, reaching the lowest in the past two months. Costs also dropped on the day amid losses in the energy complex and German power.
- French hydropower reserves in calendar week 41 declined by 2.4 percentage points to 67.4% of capacity, sharply widening the deficit to the five-year average.
- EdF has raised its nuclear generation forecast for this year to 365-375TWh, from 350-370TWh previously.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuke will begin test runs at various load factors from 14 October.
- Experts were divided over the German government’s draft law to accelerate permitting for offshore wind and electricity grid projects.
- The unplanned outage at the 2GW IFA power interconnector between the UK and France has been extended again by one day until 16 October 15:00 UTC.
- The UK government has approved the Tillbridge solar PV project, marking the 17th national significant clean energy project approved by the government since July last year.
- Swiss hydropower reserves in calendar week 41 declined by two percentage points to 82.9% of capacity, switching to a deficit to the five-year average.
- Spanish hydropower reserves in calendar week 41 declined by 1 percentage point, above the five-year average decline, to 53.1% of capacity.
- Spain’s Red Electrica said that recently detected voltage swings do not currently pose a risk of another major power blackout.
- Statnett has proposed reducing the minimum bid size for mFRR reserves to 1MW from 10MW starting 2 December 2025, aiming to boost market participation and improve system balancing.
- Stoen Operator, Orlen Termika, and the city of Warsaw have signed a letter of intent to build a 500MW gas-steam unit at the Siekierki CHP plant.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
Sep-12 21:45
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
Sep-12 21:16
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Sep-12 21:07
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
