POWER: Nordic Front-Month Power May Ease Back From Multi-Month High
Nov-19 07:23
The Nordic front-month power contract has been rising to the highest since January 2024 this week. Front-month futures may open lower on Wednesday with an upward revision in hydro balances and forecasts for slightly warmer and wetter weather.
- Nordic Base Power DEC 25 closed up 1.6% at 68.9 EUR/MWh on 18 Nov
- Nordic Base Power 1Q26 closed up 0% at 67.82 EUR/MWh on 18 Nov
- Germany Base Power DEC 25 down 1.8% at 100.18 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 1.4% at 31.25 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance has been revised up to end at -4.14TWh as of 3 December, from -4.68TWh previously. The balance is forecast to steadily decline through the forecast period.
- Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised up to end at -210GWh as of 3 December, from -799GWh previously. The balance will also steadily narrow during the period.
- Precipitation in the Nordics has been slightly revised up but remains below normal until 27 November, after which weather will be slightly wetter than normal.
- Mean temperatures in the Nordics have been revised up to remain below normal until 28 November, after which temperatures will rise above the seasonal average.
- Nordic nuclear capacity was at 89% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of the 11 units are online.
- The 1GW Forsmark 1 nuclear plant will still be offline until 6 December for planned works.
- Additionally, Finland’s 890MW OL2 nuke will have an unplanned 155MW curtailment lasting until 6 April 2026.
- Norwegian wind is forecast between 388MW and 1.94MW during base-load hours on 20-29 November, according to SpotRenewables.
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FOREX: USD Broadly Flat Having Found a Base Last Week
Oct-20 07:20
- The dollar is largely flat against broader G10 FX as markets await the delayed US CPI print on Friday. The early best performer is SEK, up 0.3% through the European open, extending its status as the best performer YTD, up 17.5% since January 1st. Initial support remains at 9.4000, although USDSEK did print a 9.3958 low on Friday.
- JPY saw another volatile 82 pip session overnight. Politics remains the key driver as Japan's LDP and Ishin parties announced the formation of a coalition, which should pave the way for Takaichi to become the new PM.
- The USD received a mild mid-APAC boost as Trump repeated that the US and China will be fine, however most G10 crosses have settled back to near mid-traded ranges early Monday.
SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
Oct-20 07:10
- Trading Above SupportRES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $54.567 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $51.753 @ 08:10 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: $48.736 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $44.692 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high again, on Friday. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $54.567, a Fibonacci projection, and the $55.00 handle. Note that the trend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is $48.736, the 20-day EMA.
EGBS: OATs Open Lower, Need to Push Back to 123.17 to Close Gap
Oct-20 07:06
- Some notable early flow across EGBs and especially in OATs following S&P's rating downgrade on Friday. The French 10yr gapped lower at the open and would need a push back to 123.17 to close it.
- German PPI came in below expectations, helping the Bund a few ticks higher but price action remains short of the initial resistance of 130.18. Initial support in Bunds is unchanged at 129.13.
- The 2yr part of the curve is leading in early trade as Schatz volumes are already higher relative to the 5yr Bobl.
- There are no tier data releases left for the session today, with UK CPI on Wednesday, prelim PMIs and the US CPI on Friday the main focus on the data front.
Speakers today include ECB's Schnabel, Nagel & Vujcic. The FOMC have entered their pre-meeting media blackout period.
