POWER: Nordic Curve May Trade Higher on Weakened Hydro Balance, TTF
Jan-23 08:29
The Nordic forward curve could be supported today—with February already in green—amid weakened forecasts for Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balance. However, temperatures are still expected to be well above the seasonal average until at least early February, with the return of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 next week. This may limit gains due to reduced demand and higher power supply.
- Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 0.7% at 34 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 3.3% at 100.51 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 3.8% at 111.17 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 2.3% at 80.76 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1% at 49.2 EUR/MWh
- The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 reactor is expected to return to the grid on 27 January at 23:59 CET after having planned maintenance for over four months, latest Remit data show.
- And planned works at the 600MW Swepol Link between Sweden and Poland will occur over 24-25 January, with capacity reduced to as low as 300MW in the Swedish-Polish direction.
- Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down by around 360-823 GWh/d over 1-6 February and is now expected to end at +12.25TWh on 6 February compared to +12.92TWh in the previous forecasts.
- However, Sweden’s balance is also expected to be lower, with the balance at +7.46TWh on 6 Feb – revised down from +7.85TWh in the previous forecasts.
- But average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as high as 4C on 2 February – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts. And will remain above the seasonal average of around -2.4C until 6 February.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.59GW, or 30% on 24 January – sharply up from forecasts for today of around 0.612GW – which could weigh on delivery.
- Nordic nuclear availability was at 89% capacity on Thursday morning, up from 88% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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CROSS ASSET: MONTH END EXTENSION (update)
Dec-24 08:21
This should be a non event for Year End, they are small, and only the lower liquidity could get Govies moving, but unlikely, as investors turn their attention to 2025.
Bloomberg Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.07yr (small, average).
- EU Govies: +0.04yr (small).
- UK Govies: -0.02yr (non event).
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.05yr (small).
- EU Govies: +0.03yr (small).
- UK Govies: To contract (non event).
Barclays FX:
- Their Quarter rebalancing model only shows a Weak Dollar Buying signal.
GILTS: Opens within the Calls
Dec-24 08:09
- A slightly higher open for Gilt, was just down 2 ticks at 92.46 vs close, a small wide range of 16 ticks on the Open, but as expected very poor volumes as also seen in the Sonia Strip.
- In Terms of Technical, support is at 91.87, while resistance moves down to 92.92.
GILTS: Opening calls
Dec-24 07:57
Gilt Calls will be taken from Tnotes, with Europe closed, 92.40, would be 8 ticks down.
