Nomura Cuts GDP Growth Forecasts

Nomura mark down their ’22 & ’23 China GDP growth forecasts on several factors.

• “First, because of the latest activity data and some new negative developments, we cut our GDP growth forecast to 2.9% and 3.3% Y/Y for Q3 and Q4 2022 from 4.0% and 4.0%, respectively. Accordingly, we lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%.”
• “Second, although we still believe Beijing will maintain its zero-Covid strategy (ZCS) until March 2023, we also revise down our growth forecast for 2023, as the economy may either experience a surge in infections if Beijing shifts to “living with Covid”, or there may be disappointment if Beijing keeps ZCS after the political reshuffle concludes in March 2023. We thus lower our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.5%.”