UK: No. 10 Comms Director Quits In Another Blow To PM's Authority

Tim Allan, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's director of communication, has announced he is standing down. Allan's departure was not expected, and came less than 24 hours since Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, resigned himself amid the ongoing scandal regarding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States. Allan said his resignation came in order to allow the PM to set up a new team to run 10 Downing Street. The resignation of two of the seniormost political appointees within the PM's office within a day of one another comes as a major blow to Starmer's already weakened standing. 

• The PM is due to speak to the parliamentary Labour Party this evening in what is increasingly looking like a make-or-break event for his continued leadership of the party and the government.
• Data from predictions market Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 67% implied probability that Starmer is out of 10 Downing Street by 30 June, up from 22% on 4 Feb. While not an exact science, predictions markets such as these can give a useful real-time indicator of public sentiment towards a politician or event. 

Chart 1. Predictions Market Implied Probability PM Starmer Leaves Office by 30 June, %

Source: Polymarket