SECURITY: Netanyahu Says US-Iran Nuclear Deal Must Cover Ballistics/Proxies
Feb-12 16:51
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters that a potential US nuclear deal with Iran must cover its ballistic missile programme and support for regional proxies, per Barak Ravid at Axios.
- Netanyahu: “I think the conditions [Trump] is setting, combined with [Iran's] understanding that they made a mistake last time by not reaching an agreement, could lead them to accept terms that would make it possible to achieve a good deal. I want to say clearly: I do not hide my general skepticism about the possibility of reaching any agreement with Iran. However, I made it clear that if an agreement is reached, it must include [...] not only the nuclear issue, but also ballistic missiles and Iran’s regional proxies.”
- Trump wrote on Truth Social after a White House meeting with Netanyahu yesterday that nothing “definitive” on Iran was reached, but suggested that the US will continue to pursue nuclear negotiations as the primary route to diffusing tensions with Iran.
- Trump warned, "Last time Iran decided that they were better off not making a Deal, and they were hit with Midnight Hammer — That did not work well for them. Hopefully this time they will be more reasonable and responsible.”
- Meanwhile, the US continues to bolster its defensive posture in the region. The Pentagon has prepped a second aircraft carrier strike group for deployment to the Middle East as the US military readies for a potential attack on Iran if negotiations fail, per WSJ.
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US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Reversing Post-CPI Gains, Financials Lagging
Jan-13 16:47
- Stocks are holding weaker ahead midday Tuesday, reversing short post-data rallies to new record highs in SPX eminis (7,036.25) and Nasdaq (23,813.30) after markets digested the anomalous CPI inflation data.
- Underperforming by late morning, the DJIA currently trades down 276.18 points (-0.56%) at 49316.86 after failing to breach yesterday's record high of 49,633.35, the S&P E-Mini Futures down 7 points (-0.1%) at 7010.5, Nasdaq up 25.3 points (0.1%) at 23761.62.
- Energy, IT and Health Care sector shares primarily led advances in the first half, oil and gas shares buoyed by another geopol-risk driven rally in crude (WTI +1.78 at 61.28): Texas Pacific Land Corp +3.94%, APA Corp +3.91%, EOG Resources +3.26%, Devon Energy +3.11% and Diamondback Energy +2.95%
- Semiconductor makers faired well in the first half: Advanced Micro Devices +5.79%, Intel Corp +5.79%, Jabil +4.18%, Arista Networks +3.11%, Corning Inc +2.99% and ON Semiconductor Corp +2.02%.
- While pharmaceuticals buoyed the Health Care sector: Moderna +11.35%, Revvity +5.57%, Cardinal Health +4.51%, Charles River Laboratories +2.31% and Cencora +1.71%.
- Conversely, Financial sector shares underperformed: Mastercard -4.66%, Visa -4.54%, T Rowe Price Group -3.53%, Progressive Corp -2.86%, Arthur J Gallagher -2.77% while JPMorgan Chase declines -2.77% to 315.0 after hitting 326.78 briefly after reporting earnings that included over a $2B credit card losses.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Spike Sold
Jan-13 16:44
- RES 4: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-31 High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 112-25+ High Dec 30 / 31
- RES 1: 112-22 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 112-05+ @ 16:40 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 111-29 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
Prices rallied sharply on the CPI print, but the spike was quickly sold to leave the outlook softer for now, albeit above a key support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. The trend set-up is bearish and a breach of 111-29 would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note that a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart also highlights a bearish threat. Scope is seen for a move towards 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 112-31, the Dec 18 high.
US DATA: Weekly ADP Sees Similar Tracking To Last Week’s December Update
Jan-13 16:39
- ADP earlier today reported solid private payroll growth averaging 11.75k per week in the four weeks to Dec 20.
- It follows an 11k in the week to Dec 13 (as you’d expect broadly chiming with the 41k increase in the monthly report published last week with its reference week including the 12th of the month) plus downward revisions to 8.75k (initial 11.5k) to Dec 6 and 13.25k (initial 17.5k) to Nov 29.
- Being only one week on from the monthly report it doesn’t offer much new information, but it at least continues a reasonably solid trend by recent month standards. A monthly equivalent of 47k is close to the 41k increase in the December report after a volatile few months with -29k in Nov, 47k in Oct and -29k in Sept.
- ADP proved to be a useful indicator ahead of private payrolls in Friday's December BLS report, which saw a 37k increase vs consensus of 75k. The previous correlation has been mixed though, with BLS private payrolls increasing 50k in Nov (vs that -29k for ADP) and just 1k in Oct after a heavily downward revised previous estimate of 52k (vs 47k for ADP).
