USD: Net Negative Data Impact For The Greenback, BBDXY Hovering Just Off Fresh Session Lows

Jun-01 14:35

The BBDXY continues to build on the pullback from the recent highs after the failed showing above 1,250 yesterday, with today’s net U.S. data impact (headlined by a soft prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing survey and the notable downward revision in the Q1 final Unit Labour Cost reading) in the driving seat in recent dealing.

  • Only SEK & NOK are lower vs. the USD on the session, with the broader USD and U.S. Tsy yields currently operating a little off their post-data reaction lows.
  • FOMC-dated OIS last show ~7bp of tightening for June and ~17bp of cumulative tightening through the July meeting, consolidating lower after yesterday’s well-documented “skip” rhetoric from a Fed Governor & a ’23 voter. Beyond that, just under 40bp of cuts are showing through year end.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Stock Sell-Off Led by Energy, Banking Names

May-02 14:32
  • Equity sell-off picking up pace here, with the e-mini S&P narrowing in on the Friday low of 4131.50. Break below there opens 4121.3 initially (Fib retracement) ahead of the late April lows of 4068.75.
  • Energy firms leading losses as the WTI price pulls back sharply (WTI down 3.5% at typing), but financials also a source of pain.
  • Smaller regional banks in the S&P500 are suffering: Zions Bancorp, KeyCorp and Comerica are all down 5% or more as markets speculate the financial stability issues are yet to cease.
  • The NYSE TICK index shows evidence of sizeable sell programs going through the exchange - 1522BST/1022ET saw the largest of the day: 1364 names sold, the largest since April 25th

NORGES BANK: NOK to Drive Tightening Ahead

May-02 14:25
  • Bank expected to raise rates by 25bps, inline with the guidance handed down in March
  • Non-MPR meeting, so no new path projections due
  • Persistent weakness in NOK points to higher rate path going forward
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/52716/MNINBP...

US EURODLR OPTIONS: Put strip seller

May-02 14:20

SFRU3/SFRZ3 94.50p strip, sold at 12.5 in 10k total.