OIL OPTIONS: Near Term Crude Options Most Bearish Since Mid-October

• GBP is weaker against all others in G10 as markets rush forward BoE easing pricing after UK CPI surprised to the downside, notably on the back of lower food inflation. This means the prospect of Governor Bailey supporting a Q4 cut has risen, which is well reflected by SONIA pricing. Money markets now price 17bps of easing through year-end, up from 10bps yesterday. The MPC are particularly focused on food inflation driving inflation expectations and leading to inflation persistence. As such, if today's data marks the peak for the category, then those concerns can recede a little and combine with the softer wage data seen last week.
• Inflation numbers drove GBPUSD to lose around 70 pips to print 1.3316, strengthening the narrative that the recent recovery in the pair appears corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low. A break of it would resume the recent bear leg. There are no MPC appearances scheduled ahead of the November MPC meeting (although the blackout period doesn’t start for a while so there is plenty of time for unscheduled media appearances).
• After some potential profit taking in the early morning, EURUSD continues its downward trajectory seen during the last two sessions, narrowing the gap to the 1.1542 bear trigger in the pair. E1.47bln of EURUSD options expire today around the 1.1600 handle, which may act as a magnet for price action for the pair. French politics may move back into focus towards the end of the week, with the National Assembly set to begin debate on the 2026 budget on Friday.
• Ahead of tomorrow's inaugural SNB meeting minutes, EURCHF consolidates yesterday's bounce from key clustered support between 0.9206/21. Tomorrow's minutes will signal how far the SNB was away from cutting into negative territory in September, and we specifically look for any indication of whether Schlegel's decision not to mention of negative side effects of NIRP was a deliberate move, with potential commentary here posing two-way risks for Swiss STIR and subsequently EURCHF.
• More ECB speakers are on the schedule today but they are mostly expected to reiterate the previous "rates are in a good place" rhetoric. The data calendar is light given the continued US government shutdown until Friday's flash PMIs as well as the rescheduled US CPI.

Deutsche Bank short/long dated Put Calendar spread, suggest a new position as there are no OI in any of those Strikes.

• DBK (18th Sep) 32p vs (21/12/29) 28p, sold the 2029 at 1.35 in 2.5k.