POLAND: Nawrocki Courts Far-Right Electorate, Prepares For Tonight's Debate
May-23 06:19
- Presidential contender Karol Nawrocki, supported by Law and Justice (PiS), used his meeting with Confederation's Sławomir Mentzen to demonstrate broad alignment with the latter's far-right agenda, signing off on all eight postulates formulated by Mentzen and negotiating an expanded phrasing of one of them. In several instances, Nawrocki agreed with various criticisms of the decisions made by the Law and Justice government (2015-2023), including its agreement for the European Green Deal and its relatively permissive immigration policy. Although he failed to avoid several apparent missteps, their impact on the outcome of the presidential run-off should be assessed through the lens of Mentzen's electorate.
- It was evident that Nawrocki was uncomfortable with questions about the economy and it was not his forte. He generally either tried to frame his answer in common-sensical terms or steered the conversation towards other topics. Despite his self-description as a 'guardian of the social achievements of the Law and Justice government', he repeatedly branded himself as an advocate of economic liberalism of the kind espoused by Confederation. Asked about monetary policy, Nawrocki had evident troubles reconciling his calls for interest-rate reductions with his criticism of the level of inflation during Prime Minister Donald Tusk's tenure, and asked for a clarification of the relationship between interest rates and inflation. He insisted that he had economic advisors, but refused to name any of them. Still, the part of the conversation related to economic matters was relatively short and may have had limited impact on the wider perception of the interview.
- In the second half of the interview, Nawrocki was baited into making several controversial confessions. First, he appeared to indirectly confirm rumours of his participation in arranged fights of football hooligans in the past (although he tried to water it down with a discussion of his experience in boxing), saying that 'when it comes to honourable, manly hand-to-hand fights, there was a lot of it in my life, it's a natural thing'. Second, he admitted possession of firearms for personal defence, saying that he acquired a licence after the Russian Federation issued an arrest warrant against him. Third, he continued to provide rather unconvincing explanations of an apartment purchase deal he made with a pensioner, eventually acquiring his flat for below-market value. It is unclear how the first two issues will resonate with Confederation's right-wing electorate, or whether the latter issue will have any further impact at all, after being extensively discussed in the course of the campaign.
- Mentzen came third in the first round of the presidential election, garnering nearly 15% of the vote, which makes his support base an important reservoir of second-round votes. In a bid to leverage this position, he extended invitations to both candidates who advanced to the run-off and is scheduled to talk with Rafał Trzaskowski this Saturday. In the meantime, Nawrocki and Trzaskowski will face off in a televised debate tonight. Mentzen's interviews can be impactful in the context of the June 1 presidential run-off. The meeting with Nawrocki, broadcast via Mentzen's YouTube channel, attracted a very large audience and the signal was shared with major TV channels. Apart from giving Confederation leverage over other parties, the interviews may help it establish lines of communication with new sections of the electorate, bypassing mainstream media.
- As flagged in previous coverage, by signing off on the policy declaration compiled by Mentzen, Nawrocki committed to opposing any tax increases, the admission of Ukraine to NATO, the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine, or the delegation of further powers to the EU, among others. He asked Mentzen to add to the list his categorical opposition to the European Green Deal and the EU's trade deal with MERCOSUR.
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GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition
Apr-23 06:19
- RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3500.1 - High Apr 22
- PRICE: $3321.6 @ 07:18 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: $3284.0 - Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: $3184.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 4: $3047.0 - 50-day EMA
The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. The latest move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $2547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3184.2, the 20-day EMA.
NORWAY: Industrial Confidence Indicator Remained Expansionary In Q1
Apr-23 06:15
The Norwegian Q1 2025 industrial confidence indicator was 4.0, slightly below last quarter’s 5.3 but still above the historical average of 2.9. Taken alongside improving trends in industrial production growth in Jan/Feb and a still-expansionary manufacturing PMI, this suggests industry should be a positive contributor to Q1 GDP.
- Intermediate goods production was unchanged in Q1, while consumer and capital goods production increased. Employment increased across sectors, led by capital goods (largely a function of the supplier industry/oil and gas investments).
- New orders on the domestic and export market were unchanged on aggregate.
- Input and output price growth increased across sectors, but most strongly for consumer goods – which will feed most directly into goods CPI readings.
- Q1 capacity utilisation was 79%, marginally higher than in Q4 and just below the long term average of 80%.
- The general outlook for Q2 is positive, led by capital goods producers.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
Apr-23 06:13
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $75.47 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.85 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.15 @ 07:02 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are holding on to their recent gains and continue to trade above the Apr 9 low. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $69.85.
