NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Rally Stalls
Feb-20 19:54
Henry Hub front month has eased back after settling at the highest since 2022, as the cold-weather rally stalls. A bullish EIA stock draw pared some losses.
- US Natgas MAR 25 down 2.5% at 4.18$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 down 2.4% at 4.1$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb. 14 showed a withdrawal of 196bcf.
- The seasonal five-year average shows a net withdrawal of around 145bcf.
- Total stocks are down to 2,101bcf and 386bcf below levels seen a year ago and 118bcf below the previous five-year average of 2,219bcf.
- The EIA expects an increase of 10% in household energy expenditures for heating from natural gas and propane for the current winter.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is holding near the highest since Jan. 22 at 129.6bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- Average temperatures in Lower 48 are expected to rise above normal in the coming days but the NOAA forecast shows below normal in eastern areas in the 8–14-day period.
- Associated wellhead natural gas production was estimated to be down 0.37-0.45 bcf/d, said Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.
- Natural Gas Pipeline Company declared a force majeure at Compressor Station 801 in Carter County, Oklahoma
- Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana on Wednesday received U.S. federal regulator approval to increase export capacity, Reuters said.
- Rare LNG cargoes from Cameroon and Mexico head to Europe amid high TTF pricing, Bloomberg reports.
- 230m mtpa of LNG supply growth will be required in next decade: Anatol Feygin, Cheniere’s executive vice president.
- Pakistan approved the extension of a LNG Framework Agreement between Pakistan LNG and SOCAR.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Loses Ground, Henry Hub Falls, Gold Rises Amid Tariff Fears
Jan-21 19:43
- Crude futures have lost ground today as the market assesses the potential impact of the new US administration, with Trump promising to boost US production further.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 2.3% at $76.1/bbl.
- US President Trump declared a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies.
- Trump also said that he planned to impose previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb 1.
- Platts expects a tentative bullish effect on oil prices from these tariffs, due to increased freight costs amid expected oil trade reshuffling.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback, which has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.75.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub has fallen as freezing weather over the long weekend failed to significantly curb gas output, while forecasts expect temperatures to rise, and thus cut heating demand, next week.
- US Natgas Feb 25 is down by 4.7% at $3.76/mmbtu.
- Spot gold has risen by a further 1.3% to $2,743/oz today, its highest level since Nov 6, driven by the possibility of tariffs on US gold imports.
- The yellow metal has pierced key short-term resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high, exposing $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.
POLITICAL RISK: Trump Set For First Oval Office Interview Wednesday Evening
Jan-21 19:33
Pres Trump will have his first Oval Office interview since returning to the White House on Wednesday at 9pm ET, with Fox's Sean Hannity - per Axios.
- "Trump is expected to discuss his second presidential term, recent executive orders and what to expect from the first 100 days, Fox exclusively confirmed to Axios."
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
Jan-21 19:30
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.56 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 155.44 @ 16:16 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 155.00/154.78 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 154.32 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.32, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
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