SOUTH AFRICA: National Treasury Holds Briefing On Budget Process
- The National Treasury will hold a media briefing at 11:30BST/12:30SAST to explain the technical process that must now be undertaken regarding the 2025 Budget. The briefing will be led by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, Deputy Ministers Masondo and Sarupen, and Director-General Duncan Pieterse. Godongwana is expected to table a fresh set of budget documents after the Western Cape High Court blocked his proposed VAT increase. This will be the third version of the spending plan, with Godongwana facing the task of plugging a ZAR75bn medium-term revenue shortfall created by the reversal of the proposed VAT hike. In a recent statement, the Treasury said that the Finance Minister 'expects to introduce a revised version of the Appropriation Bill and Division of Revenue Bill within the next few weeks.'
- South Africa's M3 money growth slowed to +5.75% Y/Y in March from +6.05% prior. Private sector credit expanded by 3.45% Y/Y, beating the consensus forecast of +2.70%.
- South Africa will report trade balance and budget data for the month of March at 13:00BST/14:00SAST.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Sights Are On The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 5896.39 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5778.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21
- PRICE: 5584.50 @ 07:02 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5574.25 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at, 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
RATINGS: Affirmations On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- S&P affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable
- Scope Ratings affirmed the United Kingdom at AA; Outlook Stable
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trades Through A Key Support
- RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
- RES 1: 5359.39 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5218.00 @ 06:41 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5200.00 Round number support
- SUP 2: 5160.00 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5040.00 Low Jan 16
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today and this has resulted in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The print below this support undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 5200 handle next, where a break would open 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial resistance to watch is 5359.39, the 20-day EMA.
