EU REAL ESTATE: National Storage: Private Equity Bid

• ECB-dated OIS now price just 12bps of easing through September 2026, down from almost 20bps at the start of last week. Following the stronger-than-expected October flash PMIs last Friday, markets appear to be positioning for a neutral tone from President Lagarde at Thursday’s ECB decision. The 1y1y ESTR forward rate is now back at 1.89%, after closing at 1.81% on October 17 (see chart).
• The ECB is firmly expected to hold to deposit rate at 2.00% on Thursday, with a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach set to be re-iterated. Lagarde will likely stress that policy is in a “good place” once again.
• That said, the MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece noted that while policymakers are happy with current rates, they are leaving the door open to an additional cut, given inflation and growth risks seen as broadly balanced but still tilted to the downside.
• The ECB decision comes alongside a heavy regional data calendar, which will help inform these risks. Q3 flash GDP (Thurs), October flash inflation (Fri) and the Q3 Bank Lending Survey (Tue) are all due this week.
• Compared to Friday’s settlement levels, Euribor futures are -0.5 to -1.5 ticks through the blues. Global rates markets are weaker this morning amid hopes of a US/China trade deal. 

Gilt Opening Calls, 93.12/93.20 range.

Estoxx 50: +0.52%, Dax: +0.43%, CAC: +0.45%, FTSE +0.15%, SMI -0.10%.