HUNGARY: National Economy Minister Sees 2025 GDP Growth at Around 0.5%
Speaking at a hearing before the Parliament's Economic Committee on Thursday, National Economy Marton Nagy said Hungary's GDP growth may be around 0.5% this year, but a recovery is expected in Q4. Comments below via Portfolio newspaper:
- "This year's GDP growth may be around 0.5%, but the government expects a recovery in the fourth quarter, said Márton Nagy, Minister of National Economy, at a hearing before the Parliament's Economic Committee on Thursday."
- "At its meeting on Wednesday, the government decided that pensions will increase by 3.6% from January in line with expected inflation."
- "According to the Minister of National Economy, a significant recovery may come in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5-2% expected, and then an expansion of 2-3% in 2026. Inflation could average 3.6% next year, after 4.6% this year"
- "According to the Minister of National Economy, inflation expected by 2026 may already be within the central bank's target range, which could also help monetary policy, but the decision in this regard will be made by the MNB."
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COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Bear Cycle
The latest recovery in WTI futures appears corrective for now, however, note that price has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $61.14. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Low Oct 20. Gold is trading lower as it extends the bear cycle that started Oct 20. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement is allowing this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4045.9, has been breached, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at $3838.2. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI Crude down $1.2 or -1.96% at $60.07
- Natural Gas down $0.15 or -4.21% at $3.295
- Gold spot down $84.78 or -2.13% at $3901.9
- Copper down $6.85 or -1.32% at $510.1
- Silver down $1.18 or -2.51% at $45.7186
- Platinum down $54.93 or -3.46% at $1536.07
EQUITIES: Trend Condition for Equities Remains Bullish
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday, as it started the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 6900.00 handle has been cleared, opening 6953.25 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish. Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bull theme and maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5625.31, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 293.14 pts or -0.58% at 50219.18 and the TOPIX ended 39.18 pts lower or -1.18% at 3285.87.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 8.721 pts or -0.22% at 3988.224 and the HANG SENG ended 87.56 pts lower or -0.33% at 26346.14.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 74.47 pts or -0.31% at 24233.55, FTSE 100 higher by 5.5 pts or +0.06% at 9659.08, CAC 40 down 18 pts or -0.22% at 8221.18 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 15.51 pts or -0.27% at 5695.55.
- Dow Jones mini up 8 pts or +0.02% at 47720, S&P 500 mini down 0.5 pts or -0.01% at 6907.75, NASDAQ mini up 9.75 pts or +0.04% at 25973.25.
