NATGAS: Henry Hub Briefly Dips on EIA Stock Build
Henry Hub initially dipped but has since recovered most of its initial losses after an above expectation but below average injection rate in the latest EIA data. Henry Hub continues to trade lower on the day.
- US Natgas NOV 24 down 0.9% at 2.64$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 down 1.3% at 2.87$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Oct. 4 showed an injection of 82bcf compared to the expectation for an injection of 73bcf according to a Bloomberg survey and the seasonal normal injection of about 96bcf.
- US working gas storage inventories however still hold a surplus of 176bcf above the five-year average, with total stocks at 3,629bcf compared to the previous five-year average of 3,453bcf. Last week’s surplus was 190bcf.
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BPSNBB36) at its auction next Tuesday, September 17.
SWEDEN: PM Appoints Migration Minister Malmer Stenergard As New Foreign Min
Maria Malmer Stenergard, who has served as Minister for Migration and Asylum Policy since 2022, has been appointed as Sweden's new foreign minister by PM Ulf Kristersson. Malmer Stenergard replaces Tobias Billstrom, who shocked observers last week by announcing his resignation and retirement from politics at the age of 50. There has been speculation that a falling-out between Billstrom and Kristersson presaged the foreign minister's withdrawal, but this has been denied by the former minister.
- Malmer Stenergard hails from the same centre-right Moderate party as Kristersson and Billstrom. Her moving to the foreign ministry, as well as Minister for European Affairs Jessika Roswall's nomination to serve as Sweden's European Commissioner has led to a small reshuffle. Jessica Rosencrantz, chair of the Riksdag's European Affairs committee takes over as Minister for European Affairs, while Minister for Development Cooperation Johan Forssell takes over as Migration Minister.
- The reshuffle will not change the balance of power within gov't, with all the changes affecting Moderate party ministers, rather than those from the junior partners, the classical liberal Liberals or the social conservative Christian Democrats.
- The right-wing populist Sweden Democrats continue to wield influence over the broad direction of gov't policy, notably on immigration and crime, under the Tidö Agreement that set out the path for the Sweden Democrats to back a minority Moderate-led coalition after the 2022 general election.
CROSS ASSET: USD Index, Core FI At Daily Highs As Risk Sours, Oil Drops Sharply
A souring of risk sentiment allows core FI futures to break out of today’s tight ranges, with a reversal in oil futures seemingly leading the move. Broad-based weakness in other commodities today (e.g. natgas and iron ore) have lent additional support to bonds.
- Our Commodities team has not noted a headline driver for the move in oil, which has seen Brent crude futures pierce the Sep 5 low at 70.61. WTI similarly trades at new multi-month lows.
- Stoxx 50 futures are at session lows, while US counterparts will also be under pressure from idiosyncratic weakness in JP Morgan shares (amid an ongoing press conference).
- EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY trade at fresh intraday lows, with risk- and commodity-sensitive FX (Scandis, Antipodeans, CAD) unsurprisingly seeing weakness.
