REFINING: Naftan Refinery in Belarus Faces Diesel Fire

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has publicly called for presidential elections to be brought forward from mid-2027 to try and break the current political crisis that is set to claim France's third prime minister in less than a year. Philippe's intervention is a notable one. Opposition figures have frequently called for President Emmanuel Macron to stand down and call a snap election. However, Philippe not only hails from the centrist bloc of parties that supports the gov't, but also served as Macron's first prime minister on coming to office in 2017. 

• Speaking to RTL, Philippe said Macron should "appoint a government that will adopt a budget and then [call] an early presidential election. [...] We still don't have a budget, time is running out [...] the way out of the crisis rests with Emmanuel Macron and he must live up to his mandate. "
• Philippe leads the centre-right Horizons party and has announced his intention to run in the next presidential election. Early opinion polling shows that of the potential candidates from the centrist bloc, Philippe has the best chance of making a run-off against the far-right National Rally candidates.
• Another former Macron PM, Gabriel Attal, said in a TV interview on 6 Oct that he "no longer understands the decisions" of the head of state. Says Macron's decision-making indicates someone unwilling to share power.
• Data from Polymarket shows political bettors assigning a 23% implied probability that Macron is out of office by end-June 2026, up from 11% on 5 Oct. 

2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond

• Spread set at MS + 34bps (guidance was MS + 36bps area)
• Books in excess of E81bln (inc E7bln JLM interest)
• Size: E5bln - in line with initial guidance (MNI expected E4-5bln)

New 15-year Dec-2040 

• Spread set at MS + 75bps (guidance wasMS + 77bps area
• Size: E6bln - up from initial E5bln guidance (MNI expects E5-6bln)
• Books in excess of E78bln (inc E6.75bln JLM interest)
• ISIN: EU000A4EJF17
• Coupon: Long first
• Maturity: 12 December 2040

For both:

• JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
• Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
• Timing: Books close at 10:00BST / 11:00CET

From market source / MNI colour