AUDNZD: NAB Mark Targets Higher Despite Recent Fall
NAB write “a weaker AUD/NZD cross over the past month or so has gone against our view but understandable in light of rate differentials widening. From this lower base, our new projections see a meaningful reversal and we have actually revised up our AUD/NZD targets despite heading in the opposite direction.”
- “In terms of the outlook for the cross:”
- “Australia-NZ rate differentials can narrow from current levels. While both the RBNZ and RBA still have a bias to tighten further, given the current large difference in policy rates, there is more chance of easier policy in NZ than Australia.”
- “NZ’s relatively tighter monetary policy stance suggests more domestic growth headwinds compared to Australia, ultimately a positive force for the cross.”
- “Over the past few years, NZ and Australia’s current account balances have gone in opposite directions. NZ’s large deficit - over 9% of GDP on recent annualised quarters - stands in stark contrast to Australia’s surplus. A stronger cross rate would help close the gap.”
- “While our prior projections had a central view of NZ$1.10-1.11 over the foreseeable future, we have nudged the figures up to NZ$1.11-1.13. This is consistent with a view that the cross could re-visit the September high just under NZ$1.15, which was the top of a well-established 9-year trading range.”
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Building Base for Recovery
- RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 3: 1.3742 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
- PRICE: 1.3564 @ 16:02 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.3275/3262 Low Feb 14 / 2
- SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing
USDCAD rallied solidly Friday, topping the recent high of 1.3537. This defies the view that the recent bounce was corrective, as the pair builds a base for further gains. The bull trigger is still someway off at 1.3705, but a weekly close above the 1.3500 would prove constructive. A break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger.
US TSYS: Hot PCE Green Light For More Fed Hikes
Tsys near lows after the bell. Hot PCE read points to "more to do" by the Fed to reel in inflation, yield curves flatter but off lows as 30s races 2s to new contract lows: TUH3 new contract low of 101-17.88, 2YY hits 4.8364% - highest level since July 2007; USH3 133-20 low, 30YY tapped 3.9597% high.
- Tsys gapped lower as nominal personal spending was stronger than expected in Jan (1.8% vs 1.4) and incomes weaker (0.6% vs 1.0), with the savings rate rising further to 4.7% in Jan from 4% in Q4 and a low of 2.7% in June (albeit prone to sizeable revs). Stronger inflation meant that real spending came in as expected, bouncing strongly after yesterday's surprise downward revision with the 1.1% M/M the strongest since Mar'21.
- Jump in new home sales added to the FI sell-off, 7.2% M/M in Jan (cons 0.7) after an upward revised 7.2% M/M (initial 2.3), leaving sales at 670k (cons 620k) for the highest since March.
- Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 31.0bp, May'23 cumulative 58.1bp (+1.9) to 5.164%, Jun'23 75.5bp (+3.0) to 5.338%, terminal at 5.40% in Aug'23/Sep'23, off first half high of 5.445%.
- Early Fed speak from Cleveland Fed Mester in line with previous, favoring getting rates somewhat above 5%, won't pre-judge next meeting size.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Friday she sees the need for more rate increases amid high inflation and then likely holding there for an extended period of time.
AUDUSD TECHS: Flips Bearish
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6726 @ 15:57 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 0.6725 100-dma
- SUP 2: 0.6719 Low Feb 24
- SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
- SUP 4: 0.6629 Low Dec 20
AUDUSD’s February downtrend accelerated Friday, with the pair hitting a new pullback low at 0.6719. This makes for a clean break of the 200-dma at 0.6801 and opens fresh losses toward Dec lows at 0.6629. The 100-dma has contained the fallout so far, but a break below here would be bearish at 0.6725. Technical conditions are yet to hit oversold, leaving a lower likelihood of a corrective recovery at this stage.
