WTI TECHS: (N5) Reversal Signal
- RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.75/64.19 - 50-day EMA / High May 21
- PRICE: $60.78 @ 07:20 BST May 23
- SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Wednesday’s price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal.
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UK DMO UPDATE: Remit revision expected at 7:30BST
- As we noted earlier if following prior year's precedent the DMO is likely to revise the remit at 7:30BST.
- CGNCRex is GBP7.9bln more than the OBR's forecast - so that sets the baseline for the expected upward revision.
- This could all be done through one extra short and one extra medium auction (which is our expectation) while marginally reducing those average auction sizes.
BUNDS: Attention turns to the Prelim PMIs
- The German Bund remains elevated despite showing that it is in the red and drifting through session low going post the Cash open.
- The April high of 132.03 has provided the resistance Yesterday, but also overnight, printed a 132.01 high Yesterday and 131.93 so far Today.
- Donald Trump said that he had no intention in firing Powell, and has now also said that he will be "very nice" to China in any trade talks, this has provided the Gap higher in Equities, while the impact has been more limited in Govies ahead of Today's Data.
- Initial support in Bund will be seen at 131.46, Yesterday's low.
- Main focus this Week on the Data front is Today, with the prelim PMIs.
- SUPPLY: Germany €4bn Bund 10yr (equates to ~33.2k Bund) could weigh, US sells $30bn of 2yr TIPS and $70bn of 5yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: Austria 2029, 2039, 2053.
- SPEAKERS: A packed day for Speakers, Today includes, BoE Pill, Bailey, Breeden, ECB Knot, Lane, Villeroy, Cipollone, Fed Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack, Kugler.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 5639.32 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5528.75 High Apr 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5425.57 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5401.75 @ 07:15 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5425.57, the 20-day EMA.
