BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Intact
- RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $66.49/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $64.42 @ 07:05 BST May 16
- SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on key resistance at $66.49, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, the Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.
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UK DATA: CPI marginal downside surprise; doesn't change narrative much
Comparing to the BOE forecasts that is a 0.11ppt downside surprise to headline with a 0.21ppt downside surprise to services, 0.06ppt downside surprise to core goods and 1.1ppt downside surprise to energy. This is offset somewhat by food/non-alcoholic bevs (+0.48ppt surprise but this is a little less than the +0.55ppt surprise in Feb) and alcohol/tobacco (+0.78ppt vs BOE but down from 0.94ppt surprise in Feb).
- Energy is in line with the sell side previews that we had read (petrol prices are weaker than that BOE had expected).
- Services downside surprise seems to largely be down to accommodation services (this contributed -0.07ppt to headline CPI).
- There was also a downside surprise in "recreation and culture" on both the goods and services side.
- Outside this, most of the movements look broadly in line with expected at first glance: clothing and footwear +0.11ppt to headline CPI retracing some but not all of last month's fall.
- So overall marginally lower than expected, and still moving in the right direction which will mean there are no extra barriers to stop the BOE being able to cut ahead, but not a huge surprise here, so it doesn't change the narrative too much.
CROSS ASSET: Trade Worry Weighs On USD & Stocks
The USD has been under pressure since the start of the Asia-Pac session, while equities have seen fresh selling as European participants begin to filter in.
- This leaves the e-mini S&P 500 contract -1.41%, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are -1.48%. The former trades above Friday’s low, while the latter hasn’t managed to test/break Monday’s low.
- Trade angst has been a key driver, after Nvidia revealed that it is now subjected to restrictions on exports to China, a move that is set to cost the company billions.
- Elsewhere, WSJ sources noted that “the Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China”. This also weighed on equities and the USD, with the threat to the USD via potential capital reallocation and longer run shifts in trade flow already well-documented. The BBDXY hasn’t breached Monday’s low.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Resumes Its Uptrend
- RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the MAr 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.47 High APr 15
- PRICE: 118.83 @ Close Apr 15
- SUP 1: 118.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of recent Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels what appeared last week to be a developing bearish threat. Attention is on 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would open 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 118.00, the 20-day EMA.
