OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls On US-Iran Talk Progress

Option desks report mixed SOFR & Treasury options overnight, lighter SOFR put volume while Treasury options see better 5- and 10Y call spread buying. Underlying futures scaling back portion of Monday gains while projected rate hike pricing eases vs. late Monday (*) as follows: May'25 at -5bp, Jun'25 at -20.2bp (-22.3bp), Jul'25 at -38.4bp (-41.1bp), Sep'25 -56.7bp (-59.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • 14,000 SFRU5 95.50/95.75 put spds ref 96.25 to -.255
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys ref 95.92
  • 2,800 0QU5 95.75/96.00 put spds
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 USK5 107/107.5 call spds ref 114-05
  • over 12,700 TYK5 111.75 calls, 15 last
  • -5,400 TYK5 111.75 calls, 15 ref 110-24
  • +4,500 TYK5 108/109/110 put flys, 9 ref 110-21.5
  • -3,000 TYK5 111 puts, 48 vs 110-21.5/0.58%
  • +20,000 FVM5 110/111.5 call spds, 8.5 ref 108-01 to 107-31.5
  • +5,000 FVM5 108.5/109.5/110 broken call flys, 12 ref 108-02

• The more stable tone for risk this week continues to foster a more constructive backdrop for higher beta currencies in the G10 space. AUD and NZD are rising again on Tuesday, advancing 0.45% and 0.75% against the dollar respectively. For NZDUSD specifically, the pair has rallied as high as 0.5928, perfectly matching initial resistance, at the late November highs. In just 5 sessions, NZDUSD has bounced 8% from its cycle lows.
• The next target resides at the post US election highs of 0.6038 for NZDUSD. Q1 inflation data is scheduled during Thursday’s local session and is the key domestic data this week.
• For AUDUSD, we are reapproaching the 0.6400 mark, and a break above 0.6409 would place the cross at the highest level since December, signalling scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6550, the Nov 25 high.
• The RBA board doubted increasing global tariffs would have a significant impact on domestic economic growth, despite acknowledging this could change, according to the published minutes from the April 1 decision. The focus turns to Thursday’s release of March employment data.

• Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s large rally, albeit with a larger intraday sell-off for 30s as relative weakness remains in play.
• Today sees the Empire manufacturing report offer the first regional Fed survey for April business conditions amidst tariffs (although its volatile nature will cloud any surprises) whilst import prices will be watched for a final steer on core PCE estimates (unlikely to move more than a few bps from a ‘low’ rounded 0.1% M/M).
• President Trump’s reaction to China halting Boeing jet deliveries and purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies – per Bloomberg reporting – will also be watched.
• With earnings season increasingly getting underway, Johnson & Johnson beat adjusted EPS estimates ($2.77 vs $2.60) for Q1.
• Cash yields are 1.5-2.5bp lower, with 5s again outperforming.
• TYM5 trades at 110-19 (-04+) after overnight modestly extending yesterday’s sizeable gains with a high of 110-27+. Volumes have seen a second more typical overnight session, currently at 310k.
• Resistance is seen at 111-00+ (20-day EMA) but a bear threat remains present with support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low).
• Data: International prices Mar (0830ET), Empire manufacturing Apr (0830ET)
• Fedspeak: Cook at alumni event (1910ET, text only) – see STIR bullet
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill sales (1130ET)