OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Falls On US-Iran Talk Progress

Option desks report mixed SOFR & Treasury options overnight, lighter SOFR put volume while Treasury options see better 5- and 10Y call spread buying. Underlying futures scaling back portion of Monday gains while projected rate hike pricing eases vs. late Monday (*) as follows: May'25 at -5bp, Jun'25 at -20.2bp (-22.3bp), Jul'25 at -38.4bp (-41.1bp), Sep'25 -56.7bp (-59.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • 14,000 SFRU5 95.50/95.75 put spds ref 96.25 to -.255
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys ref 95.92
  • 2,800 0QU5 95.75/96.00 put spds
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 USK5 107/107.5 call spds ref 114-05
  • over 12,700 TYK5 111.75 calls, 15 last
  • -5,400 TYK5 111.75 calls, 15 ref 110-24
  • +4,500 TYK5 108/109/110 put flys, 9 ref 110-21.5
  • -3,000 TYK5 111 puts, 48 vs 110-21.5/0.58%
  • +20,000 FVM5 110/111.5 call spds, 8.5 ref 108-01 to 107-31.5
  • +5,000 FVM5 108.5/109.5/110 broken call flys, 12 ref 108-02

• The more stable tone for risk this week continues to foster a more constructive backdrop for higher beta currencies in the G10 space. AUD and NZD are rising again on Tuesday, advancing 0.45% and 0.75% against the dollar respectively. For NZDUSD specifically, the pair has rallied as high as 0.5928, perfectly matching initial resistance, at the late November highs. In just 5 sessions, NZDUSD has bounced 8% from its cycle lows.
• The next target resides at the post US election highs of 0.6038 for NZDUSD. Q1 inflation data is scheduled during Thursday’s local session and is the key domestic data this week.
• For AUDUSD, we are reapproaching the 0.6400 mark, and a break above 0.6409 would place the cross at the highest level since December, signalling scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6550, the Nov 25 high.
• The RBA board doubted increasing global tariffs would have a significant impact on domestic economic growth, despite acknowledging this could change, according to the published minutes from the April 1 decision. The focus turns to Thursday’s release of March employment data.

SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE

• 1M 4.40590 -0.0046
• 3M 4.27430 0.0024
• 6M 4.14850 0.0015
• 12M 3.96700 -0.0078