ASIA FX: MYR Corrects From Overbought Conditions, THB Ignores Softer GDP
Nov-17 05:30
In South East Asia FX, the trend has been towards a firmer USD. Notably MYR has given some of its recent outperformance. In India, the rupee is slightly firmer, but USD/INR remains close to record highs.
- USD/MYR is back near 4.1500, with the RSI (14) correcting from recent oversold conditions (reading back to 34). Recent lows in USD/MYR rest at 4.1217. Upside focus may rest around the 20-day EMA (near 4.1740), but more importance resistance will be at the 50-day EMA (just under 4.2000).
- USD/THB remains within recent ranges, the pair last near 32.42. Earlier we had weaker than expected Q3 GDP, which should keep BoT with an easing bias. Moves towards 32.25/30 may draw buying interest, but equally we haven't been able to sustain +32.50 levels in recent weeks.
- USD/PHP is holding above 59.00, but off earlier highs of 59.185. Local equities are surging, comfortably up over 3%. However, this followed a multi year low in terms of Friday's close, as the corruption scandal continues to cast a shadow over the domestic outlook (with more protests over the weekend).
- Spot USD/INR is near 88.55/60, so away from recent highs near 88.80. Lower oil and some headlines around India completing its first structured contract for US LPG (via RTRS), is likely helping at the margin. Intervention risks will continue to lurk as well around the 88.80 region.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
