EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MTNSJ: licence renewal and tariff increase Nigeria, supportive
MTN (MTNSJ; Ba2/BB-/-)
- MTNSJ 6.5 Oct26 z-spread charts @ z+166bp, we see the latest news flow as supportive for the credit (see chart below).
- Today, MTN Nigeria announced it got approval for licence renewal of its Channel 1 first 800MHz spectrum band licence for an additional ten years until end of 2034. The granting of an extension to the Channel 2 second 800MHz spectrum band licence, has also aligned expires for the two licences.
- This adds to Nigeria’s recent decision to allow for a 50% increase in tariffs. It is below operators’ request for 100% increase, but we view it as a long awaited improvement.
- We view these developments as important steps forward, as MTN Nigeria remains an important contributor to group level performance.
- For reference, MTN reported 9M24 group results on November 14. Group service revenues were ZAR127.37bn, -18.5% YoY reflecting the negative impact of Nigeria’s FX depreciation (ZAR 29.91bn, -48.7%) but mitigated by growth across other markets. EBITDA stood @ ZAR45.69bn, -35% YoY. With a decline in EBITDA margin to 33.8% vs 42.8% for 9M23. The group reported leverage @ 0.8x at end of period Sep24. CAPEX stood @ ZAR42.56bn compared to ZAR 43.92bn for 9M23, with guidance confirmed.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
