EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MTN FY24 Results: Unlikely to impact spreads

MTN Group (MTNSJ: Ba2/BB-/-)

FY24 Results next week

• Minimal impact on spreads expected next week from results, given short-dated nature of the bonds, liquidity and subsidiaries have mainly reported.
• MTN group will report results before the market next week on 17th March. Mgt already updated the markets with HEPS decline of 30-35% to a range of ZAR784-847mn for the full year. The decline is associated to write downs in the Sudan business,
• Most of the subsidiaries have reported results. MTN Nigeria reported on 28th February which were strong across the board and guidance for FY25 increased with rev growth of +40% and EBITDA margin of 40%.
• South African subsidiary is expected to report rev’s of ZAR53.43bn based on Bloomberg estimates. Update to medium term outlook could impact equity valuation but unlikely to impact spreads.