NBP: MPC's Tyrowicz Plays Down Dovish Reception Of Wage Data
Jan-23 08:29
MPC's Joanna Tyrowicz played down dovish interpretations of yesterday's macroeconomic data in a Linked post published this morning, calling for patience in interpreting below-forecast wage data released yesterday.
- Tyrowicz poured cold water on the "excitement" around the slowdown of wage growth below +10% Y/Y, calling for patience until detailed sectoral data are released. She wrote: "when I was working as an analyst at the NBP, we had a saying 'if something weird is going on with wages, know that something has indeed happened... in mining."
- Tyrowicz said that the cooling of wage pressures cannot be accelerated by wishful thinking and with interest rates at their current levels, the economy will take some time to return to equilibrium. She added that we will only know if the data were systematically better than expected in hindsight.
- In Tyrowicz's view, only after price and wage dynamics normalise, the MPC will be able to "breathe a sigh of relief" and "translate this relief into votes" on interest-rate adjustments.
- Separately, Reuters circulated Tyrowicz's comment that she sees no reason to cut interest rates. She remains the most hawkish MPC member and has been consistent in calling for a hike.
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CROSS ASSET: MONTH END EXTENSION (update)
Dec-24 08:21
This should be a non event for Year End, they are small, and only the lower liquidity could get Govies moving, but unlikely, as investors turn their attention to 2025.
Bloomberg Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.07yr (small, average).
- EU Govies: +0.04yr (small).
- UK Govies: -0.02yr (non event).
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.05yr (small).
- EU Govies: +0.03yr (small).
- UK Govies: To contract (non event).
Barclays FX:
- Their Quarter rebalancing model only shows a Weak Dollar Buying signal.
GILTS: Opens within the Calls
Dec-24 08:09
- A slightly higher open for Gilt, was just down 2 ticks at 92.46 vs close, a small wide range of 16 ticks on the Open, but as expected very poor volumes as also seen in the Sonia Strip.
- In Terms of Technical, support is at 91.87, while resistance moves down to 92.92.
GILTS: Opening calls
Dec-24 07:57
Gilt Calls will be taken from Tnotes, with Europe closed, 92.40, would be 8 ticks down.
