COMMODITIES: Move Down in WTI Futures This Week Strengthens a Bearish Theme
The move down this week in WTI futures strengthens a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The bearish phase in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The recovery since Oct 28 does suggest the correction is over. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3948.2. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.
- WTI Crude down $1.13 or -1.92% at $57.85
- Natural Gas up $0.08 or +1.74% at $4.551
- Gold spot down $26.19 or -0.64% at $4049.93
- Copper down $2.9 or -0.57% at $502.15
- Silver down $1.46 or -2.88% at $49.1803
- Platinum down $16.1 or -1.06% at $1501.56
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UK FISCAL: Reeves looking to tax limited liability partners: Implications
- Stories out just after the close yesterday suggested that Chancellor Rachel Reeves was looking to impose a charge on limited liability partners in the Budget as she sees these as ways to easily avoid tax.
- Limited liability partnerships are used in particular by legal firms, GPs and accountancies. Because they are taxed as partnerships (similar to the self employed) they do not need to pay employers National Insurance Contributions (NICs) on the partners' earnings. As a reminder employers NICs were increased to 15% in April.
- The proposed plans could raise up to GBP2bln and would likely be popular with Labour's core voter base (taxing the wealthy).
- However, there could be adverse side effects. If this leads to GPs closing down or more senior GPs cutting back hours or retiring then access to front-line healthcare could be more restriced. This could lead to more pressure on A&E departments and one of UK's issue's is trying to reduce the proportion of those inactive in the labour market due to long-term sickness. This may be exacerbated if it makes it harder for people to get doctors appointments.
SNB: Schlegel Speaking On Economic Situation, SNB Monetary Policy
Little monetary policy signal in Schlegel's speech on the "Economic situation and monetary policy of the SNB" ahead of tomorrow's minutes.
- Paragraph potentially of note regarding tariff impact: "The announced but currently suspended US tariffs on certain pharmaceutical products could increase the downside risks somewhat."
- Full slides here (in German).
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Weak 7-year Bund Auction
Weak demand again on that 2.50% Nov-32 Bund auction despite it being the only re-opening of the line in Q4.
- Bid-to-offer at 0.93x, below last month’s 1.13x.
- Lowest accepted price of 101.05 below the 101.062 pre-auction mid.
- The secondary price has fallen 3 points since the auction results were published, now at 101.034.
- Very little spillover to Bund futures however (5 ticks of downside)
