ASIA STOCKS: Most Major Bourses Lower Today

NZGBs closed at session highs in a bull-flattening move, with benchmark yields falling 5–15bps across the curve. 

• The short end underperformed, partly due to a sharper rise in NZ food prices, which climbed 3.5% in the year to March 2025, up from 2.4% in February. Stats NZ attributed the increase primarily to higher prices in the grocery food and meat, poultry, and fish categories, which rose 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively.
• Meanwhile, the long end found support from US tsys. Cash US tsys has bull-flattened during today's Asia-Pacific session, with yields flat to 4bps lower. The US calendar is light today, with attention turning to retail sales and remarks from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday.
• Swap rates closed flat to 9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer across meetings. 30bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 78bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Non-Resident Bond Holdings data, ahead of Q1 CPI on Thursday.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond.

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 3: 1.1555 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1495 High Feb 10 2022 
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Apr 11 
• PRICE: 1.1358 @ 05:56 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.1144 High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level     
• SUP 2: 1.0972 20-day EMA     
• SUP 3: 1.0788 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach last week of 1.1144, the Apr 3 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.1555 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at the 1.1144 breakout level. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0972.

The BBDXY has had a tight Asian range of 1229.25 - 1232.89. The move lower is starting to show signs of at least slowing down. The USD has looked in real trouble as a rotation out of US assets seems to be gathering momentum and normal correlations with yield are breaking down.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1316 - 1.1361, dipped initially on the Asian open but it has since bounced off its lows dealing around 1.1355 going into London. EUR/USD had been trading very closely with the 10 year rate differential, this relationship broke down completely last week. Traders are targeting a move back to 1.2000 in the Euro as the USD’s safe haven role is reassessed. See graph below.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3164 - 1.3215, dealing right at the day's highs going into the London session. GBP has been playing catch up to the broad USD weakness.
• USD/CNH - Asian range 7.3074 - 7.3189, the USD/CNY fix was slightly lower at 7.2096. USD/CNH goes into the London open dealing around 7.3120.
• USD/JPY -  Asian range 142.94 - 143.59, bounced from the open making its highs into the Japanese fix. It has since drifted lower for most of the session going into London back around 143.00. Huge support is eyed around 140, a break here could see the move really accelerate.
• Cross asset : SPX Futures -0.15%, Gold 3229.50, US 10yr 4.35%, BBDXY 1229, Crude oil 61.77.
• Data/Events : UK unemployment, FR CPI, ECB Lending Survey, Ger ZEW, Empire State Man survey.

Fig 1: EUR/USD Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/BBG