US: Most Americans Approve Of Iran Ceasefire - YouGov

US President Donald Trump has provided an update to the press on US military operations in Iran. Speaking from prepared remarks, Trump reiterates claims that the US has destroyed much of Iran’s military and naval capacity. He says Iran’s drone capabilities are “close to zero.” LIVESTREAM

• Trump says the US military has “destroyed everything” on Iran’s Kharg Island except oil and gas infrastructure. He says he “left the pipes,” referring to Iran’s oil export infrastructure, but suggests he can “do that on five minutes’ notice.” He repeats that he refrained from striking the oil export terminal out of concerns for rebuilding, but says “it may not stay that way.”
• Trump says “to the best of his knowledge,” the US has destroyed all of Iran’s minelaying capability. He warns that if Tehran deploys mines in the Strait of Hormuz, “it’s a form of suicide.”
• Trump “strongly encourages” countries that depend on the Gulf for their oil to “come and help us with the Strait.” He singles out Japan, China, the EU, and South Korea as particularly exposed.
• He says some countries are “strongly enthusiastic” about coming to help. Without namechecking them, he appears to suggest that Germany, Japan, and South Korea are obliged to help due to US military presence in their countries.
• Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's White House is due to visit the White House on March 19.  While Takaichi has been a firm supporter of Trump, she intends to be “candid” in pointing out that Japan’s oil-dependent economy is suffering badly from the war in Iran, per Chatham House. 

• +5,100 TYM6 111-24, post time offer at 1222:38ET, DV01 $339,800.
• The 10Y contract trades 111-22 last (+9)

Lower crude oil has helped crimp the likes of EUR 3m10y vol. during today’s session, which, when coupled with an uptick in core global equity indices, has promoted some spread tightening for EGBs vs. Bunds.

• Note that both traded EUR vol. and EGB spreads vs. Bunds remain comfortably above levels that prevailed at the end of February.
• There was a positioning element to the widening in EGBs spreads with the escalation in the Middle East coming at a time when the ECB’s “in a good place” mantra had promoted heavy positioning in carry plays.
• Relative fiscal stories (in general more favourable for the periphery vs. much of the core and semi-core) had also provided cross-market tailwinds for peripheral paper until the escalation in the Middle East.
• Higher beta GGBs & BTPs outperform against today’s backdrop, as you would expect, narrowing by ~3bp vs. German paper at the 10-Year point.