UKRAINE: Moscow & Kyiv Still Poles Apart On Key Issues
Following on from the declaration of a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire to run from 16:00 local time (09:00ET, 14:00BST) on Saturday, 11 April, through to the end of Sunday, 12 April, Bloomberg News reports that an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said to the outlet last week that both sides want the war to end and "I don’t think it will be long".
- As MNI notes (see EM FX: PLN, HUF Rally on Ukraine Story, But Moves Limited Overall) the article carries some notable caveats. Crucially, "maximalist" positions from both sides, especially with regard to territorial control, have shown little to no signs of resolution.
- Russian state-run Tass reports comments from Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov. He confirms the visit of special presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev to the US, but adds that he "is not negotiating on a Ukraine settlement", and the visit does not represent the resumption of peace negotiations.
- Another crucial issue has been security guarantees for Ukraine. While Kyiv has sought significant commitments from the US, recent rhetoric from the White House has raised questions about its reliability. The Guardian quotes a European official saying "Ukraine is rightfully questioning whether these American security guarantees really stand for anything.”
- Indeed, speaking to The Rest is Politics podcast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy notes that Europe's security (including that of Ukraine) may in the future be reliant on internal rather than external support. "If the United States truly thinks about withdrawing from NATO, then European security will be based solely on the European Union. But not in its current form. I think that the EU is in a situation where it needs more countries. The UK, Ukraine, Türkiye, and Norway."
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ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-month BOT Results
| Type | 12-month BOT |
| Maturity | Mar 12, 2027 |
| Amount | E8bln |
| Target | E8.0bln |
| Previous | E8.5bln |
| Avg yield | 2.372% |
| Previous | 2.068% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.44x |
| Previous | 1.43x |
| Previous date | Feb 11, 2026 |
SOFR OPTIONS: SFRM6 96.3125 Puts Lifted
SFRM6 96.3125 puts paper paid 2.25 on 2K.
UK FISCAL: Reeves Speaking at Treasury Select Committee
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is answering questions from the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee presently. Livestream here. While the ostensible focus of the session is the Spring Forecast Statement Reeves delivered last week, initial questions are (unsurprisingly) focusing on the war in the Middle East and the implications for UK gov't finances and the wider economy. The chancellor largely deflects, saying "It would be unwise to speculate on the impact of the Iran conflict on UK growth, inflation or interest rates", adding only that "The quicker we can de-escalate, the better it will be for all of those different economic variables", and it is "certainly not good for the British economy to have trade disrupted".
- Asked whether the gov't has the requisite fiscal space to offer similar energy price support to consumers as that seen in 2022, Reeves says she "will do what [she] can" to help households and ensure national security.
- The Telegraph reported on 10 March, "On Tuesday, Darren Jones, a Cabinet minister, opened the door to postponing the 5p fuel duty rise, telling MPs that the Government had previously maintained the fuel duty freeze because of “the cost of living”. Mr Jones, formerly Rachel Reeves’s right-hand man at the Treasury, suggested extending the freeze was on the table if the war in the Middle East continued until the end of the year. [...] Asked if maintaining the fuel duty freeze could be looked at again, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister told LBC: “I mean, there’s a cost to it. “But the whole reason that our Government and previous governments have cut it down is because of the cost of living.”
