US DATA: Mortgage Rates Again Spared Full Extent Of Swap Rate Increase
May-21 11:18
MBA mortgage applications fell 5.1% (sa) last week as mortgage rates increased for a second week although were again spared a sharper increase as mortgage rate to swap spreads narrowed again.
- MBA composite mortgage applications fell 5.1% (sa) last week after a 1.1% increase the week prior. They stand at ~50% of 2019 levels.
- Both new purchases and refis saw similar sized declines, with new purchases at -5.2% after 2.3% (61% of 2019 average) and refis at -5.0% after -0.4% (39% of 2019 average).
- The 30Y conforming rate increased 6bp after a 2bp increase the previous week, with 6.92% the highest since mid-Feb.
- However, mortgage lenders again didn’t fully pass through higher swap rates over this period, with the average 10Y swap rate over the week some 16bp higher after an 11bp increase the previous week.
- It sees the mortgage rate to 10Y swap spread at 296bp for a 19bp tightening from the 315bp in early May that had been its widest since Feb 2024.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows
Apr-21 11:11
- Futures extending lows again, sellers meet limited buy interest, low overall volumes volumes at Jun'25 10Y trades down to 110-30 (-7.5), total volume just over 151k. 10Y yield climbs to 4.3676% (+.0427).
- Initial Technical support below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger); Continued weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Leading Index, Tsy Bills
Apr-21 11:05
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
- 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
- 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Bonds Under Pressure
Apr-21 10:54
- US markets returning from Easter holiday to Treasury curves twisting steeper, bonds under pressure on lighter volumes as European markets remain closed for Easter Monday.
- Currently, Jun'25 2Y & 5Y contracts trade +1-2, 10Y -3.5 at 111-02, 30Y bond -20 at 113-30. 10Y yield +.0291 at 4.3540%.
- Wires continue to report Pres Trump's wishes to interfere with the independent Federal Reserve by sacking Fed Chairman Powell, not to mention ongoing tariff related headlines.
- Initial technical support for TYM5 below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). Resistance at 111-17+ (High Apr 16). Volume in 10s just under 130k.
- Cross asset update: US$ falls to early Jan '24 levels, BBG $ index -9.6 at 1215.08; Gold climbs to new intra-day all-time high of 3397.75; stocks weaker SPX eminis -53.50 at 5259.25.
- Limited data today: Leading index at 1000ET, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830ET. Tsy bill auctions at 1130ET: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bills.
