US TSYS: More Vague US/Iran Headlines, Curves Flatter, Dec Projected 25Bp Hike

After a relatively static period, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slumped to a new low, according to Silver Bulletin’s polling tracker. The dip appears driven by voter anxiety over inflation, with Trump’s approval on the economy and inflation declining, while his approval on immigration continues to trend back upward. 

• A new AP NORC survey found, "As gas prices have risen amid the ongoing war in Iran, public views of President Trump’s handling of the economy have declined. Thirty percent approve of his handling of the economy, down from 38% in March."
• A new survey from Marquette Law School finds, "93% say gas prices are up; in January 50% said they were down • 24% approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, with Republican support of his policies declining"
• Nate Silver writes on Substack, on the correlation between Trump's approval and the GOP's midterm outlook: “Trump’s approval rating actually again hit a new second-term low … But Democrats are ahead by “only” 5.7 points in our generic ballot average. I put “only” in scare quotes because that’s probably enough for Democrats to take the House anyway, and make the Senate competitive. But Democrats will probably need a couple more points than that to give themselves even or better odds in the upper chamber. (Or at least, that’s what I assume our model will say. Sometimes it surprises me.)"

Figure 1: President Donald Trump Net Approval Rating 

Source: Silver Bulletin

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 04/23 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.11, -0.13)
• 04/23 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (207k, 210k)
• 04/23 0830 Continuing Claims (1.818M, 1.816M)
• 04/23 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (52.3, 52.5) 
• 04/23 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (49.8, 50.5)
• 04/23 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.3, 50.6)
• 04/23 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (11, 10)
• 04/23 1130 US Tsy $80B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
• 04/23 1300 US Tsy $26B 5Y TIPS auction 
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
• RES 3: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8681 @ 15:26 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 0.8695/85 50-day EMA (pierced) / Low Apr 14  
• SUP 2: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

EURGBP extended the week’s pullback into the Wednesday close, extending the break below the 50-day EMA support. This cancels the previously bullish outlook and opens scope for a deeper retracement toward 0.8637 and, more consequentially, 0.8610 the Mar 16 low and bear trigger. Any recovery here eyes 0.8747, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb - Mar bear leg.