BONDS: MONTH END: EU upside revision
Apr-29 07:26
MONTH END: Small upside revision for European Govies.
Given that the volumes are way below averages, despite plenty of data, a late bid can't be ruled out
Bloomberg Bonds:
- US Tsys; +0.07yr (small, average)
- EU Govies: +0.09yr vs +0.07yr
- UK Govies: 0.000yr (non event)
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.07yr (small average)
- EU Govies: +0.07yr (small average)
- UK Govies: -0.01yr (non event)
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Historical bullets
EURIBOR: Euribor futures hit after Spain CPI print
Mar-30 13:16
- The whole Euribor strip is down around 5-7 ticks on the Spanish inflation beat (HICP rising from 7.6%Y/Y to 9.8%Y/Y, 1.4ppt higher than consensus expectations). This adds to the small downward moves we had seen overnight.
- Note that we also saw a high print from the German state of North Rhine Westphalia this morning at 2.7%m/m (the comparable national German print is forecast at 1.6%M/M, with HICP expected at 1.9%M/M / 6.8%Y/Y).
- Given the NRW and Spanish prints, there will be increased market focus on the other German states to report higher CPI.
- Whites down 1.0-8.5 ticks on the day, Reds down 9.5-11.0 ticks at writing. 64bp now priced in for 2022 (just over 2.5 25bp hikes).
EUR: EURUSD at session high
Mar-30 13:16
- EURUSD test session high, led by the move in Govies, following the big beat in Spanish inflation.
- Resistance is at 1.1150 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: EGBs dip on Spanish CPI big beat
Mar-30 13:16
- Bund close the downside gap at 157.39, helped by the Spanish CPI, but watch the short end and especially the 5yr Bobl once again.
- It is where it is all happening, with Schatz.
- Bobl is down 22 ticks and Schatz 11.5.
- 5k just sold in Bobl, now at 128.22
