AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support Around The 50-Day EMA

*US CONDUCTING OPERATION TO TRANSPORT OIL THROUGH HORMUZ: AXIOS

• RES 4: 186.05 Low Jul 28
• RES 3: 186.01 1.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 185.56 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.91 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 184.80 @ 16:27 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 183.16 Low Aug 12 
• SUP 2: 181.33/179.37 Low Aug 7 / 3 and key support
• SUP 3: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025 
• SUP 4: 177.15 Low Nov 10 2025

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs and continues to retrace the sharp sell-off between Jul 29 - Aug 3. For now, gains are considered corrective. However, the cross has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This paves the way for a climb towards 185.56, a Fibonacci retracement and the next important S/T resistance. A reversal would highlight the end of the correction and refocus attention on 179.37, the Aug 3 low and key support. 

There were no major revelations on balance sheet policy in the July minutes, though there appeared to have been a spirited discussion - Chair Warsh said in the press conference that they had looked at monetary policy tools including “how much accommodation are we getting from the balance sheet?" but there were no conclusions at this juncture and details in the minutes were limited. Instead, the Committee will leave it to the designated task force but won't necessarily defer to its findings, with "several" apparently saying they'd already discussed the major issues in previous FOMC meetings (i.e. before Warsh's arrival).

• The minutes note: "Most participants commented on balance sheet policy. They noted that the findings of the task force on balance sheet policy would be a useful input into Committee deliberations and suggested that future FOMC meetings would provide an opportunity for a comprehensive discussion on the topic. Various participants pointed to particular issues that could be examined. Issues highlighted included considerations related to market functioning and financial stability, the influence of balance sheet policy on monetary and financial conditions, and the appropriate maturity composition of the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Several participants referred to earlier Committee discussions of these issues, and many participants reaffirmed that the primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy should be through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate."
• There was no mention of a decision to pause reserve management purchases (which the NY Fed did for the August-September period, vs $10B/month prior). SOMA manager Perli "noted that the level of reserves in the system appeared to remain within a range consistent with an ample supply. With reserve management purchases continuing, the Desk forecast was for reserves to remain within that range in coming months."
• More intriguing though unsurprising given earlier media reports, Warsh floated the idea of reducing the number of meetings from the current 8 to 6. It didn't sound as though there was significant opposition to this idea, as "Various participants noted that their overall assessments of the economy were little changed given the short interval between the June and July meetings."
• "The Chairman observed that six scheduled meetings per year, held roughly every two months, would allow more information to accumulate between meetings than under current practice and provide policymakers and the staff more time to consider strategic monetary policy issues. The Chairman asked for input from the Committee on these issues, but no decisions regarding possible changes in the meeting schedule were made, and the Chairman indicated that any change in practice would not affect the schedule over the balance of 2026."
• That still leaves it possible - as was reported by the NY Times - that a revised schedule for 2027 with just 6 meetings could be decided by the September meeting though the 2026 meetings would be held as currently scheduled.