EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)   
• RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 130.07/59 High Oct 24 / 17 and the bull trigger    
• PRICE: 129.30 @ 05:52 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 129.29 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 129.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 Bull leg
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7  

Bund futures traded sharply lower last week and the contract maintains a softer tone, for now. The move down is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.43, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.06. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention of the key resistance at 130.59, the Oct 17 high.

September customs export growth was significantly stronger than Bloomberg consensus expected rising 19.0% y/y after 5.8%, highest since March 2022. While imports were also higher up 17.2% y/y following 15.8%, the pickup in shipments was enough to return the merchandise trade balance to surplus at $1275mn after August’s deficit of $1964mn. The Bank of Thailand expects slower exports in H2 to be a drive of slower GDP growth. The full goods trade data are released Friday.

• The smoother 3-month average rates of import and export growth were in line with the recent trend.

Thailand customs trade y/y% 3-month moving average

• 19% US import duties don’t appear to have impacted exports yet with shipments to the US up 35% y/y in September driven by telecoms & tech-related items.
• Thai imports from China have been elevated in 2025 running at over 22% y/y on average and so some of this growth to the US may reflect a channelling of goods through Thailand to avoid higher tariffs, especially as Thai domestic demand has been soft. In its agreement with the US, Thailand said it would work to prevent this redirection.
• The Ministry of Commerce noted that the strong export result was due to strong demand from Thailand’s major destinations and less global uncertainty following US trade deals across the globe.