IRAN: Modest Market Reaction To Trump Interview

• The continued push higher for energy prices late Friday kept the renewed optimism for the US dollar firmly intact, prompting the DXY to briefly print above 100.50, piercing a number of daily highs on the chart in the process and registering the highest level since May last year.
• Last week, we wrote about how the index has, for the past 8-months, traded inside a range - between the 100.26, the Aug 1 '25 high, and 96.38, the Jul 1 '25 low. Indeed, with both levels representing important directional triggers, a bullish range breakout would signal a medium-term reversal, emphasising the significance of the recent upswing. Our full post is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4lBnM40
• Firmer-than-expected China data overnight has modestly boosted the major equity benchmarks on Monday, allowing the dollar to edge a touch lower. However, with the DXY remaining above 100.00 and the uncertainty surrounding the persistence of the conflict remaining elevated, the bullish outlook for the dollar may be strengthening.
• Notably, JP Morgan have turned tactically bullish on the dollar, referencing that time is now the enemy for the macro-outlook. This adjustment is from a year-long bearish stance, with the change reflecting prudent insurance rather than conviction in any base case.

• The continued push higher for energy prices late Friday kept the renewed optimism for the US dollar firmly intact, prompting the DXY to briefly print above 100.50, piercing a number of daily highs on the chart in the process, and registering the highest level since May last year.
• Over the weekend, US President Trump has urged nations to deploy warships to keep the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route open, and with uncertainty surrounding the persistence of the conflict, the bullish outlook for the dollar may be strengthening. With that said, the DXY is a little softer Monday, allowing the index to consolidate the recent advance back above 100.
• The softer dollar, higher equities and firmer Chinese data overnight have allowed AUD and NZD to bounce, and are the best performers in G10 to start the week. For AUDUSD, today’s 0.5% advance comes ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting, where surveyed estimates lean in favour of a hike to 4.1%. Should downside momentum pick up, focus would be on key support at 0.6963, the 50-day EMA, while the bull trigger stands at 0.7187, the March 11 high.
• USDJPY sees contained downward pressure today after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said authorities are ready to take bold steps on FX if necessary, reiterating rhetoric used in advance of rate checks this January. With spot closing above the 159.45 January highs last Friday, this means that risk/reward of long positions in the pair appear increasingly unattractive. Above the psychological 160.00 level stands the July 8 2024 low of 160.26, while to the downside, the 20-day EMA intersects at 157.22.
• Elsewhere in the majors, EURUSD price action has largely been a function of the dollar, however, the persistence of the energy price shock should continue to weigh on the single currency. Last week’s close below key support between 1.15-1.1470 was significant, and participants will be monitoring 1.1392 as the next support.
• Canada CPI and US empire manufacturing, industrial production, and the NAHB housing market index are on the data calendar for today. Besides ongoing Iran headlines, key to watch this week will be the different central bank's responses to higher energy prices.

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