MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Mar 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• MNI's latest Deep Dive recaps the major developments from Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the Feb-Apr quarter, which was broadly in line with expectations.
• Treasury was more optimistic on the deficit outlook than the private sector consensus, but the auction size announcement was almost exactly in line, with similar increases to coupon sizes as seen in the previous round.
• A modest surprise for some observers was that Treasury didn’t announce that it was launching buybacks immediately. However, Treasury confirmed buybacks will be coming "later this year" after market tests in April with an announcement coming in May.
• The next quarterly Refunding round begins on April 29 (financing estimates), with the quarterly policy statement/auction size announcements two days later on May 1.
• February’s coupon auctions were mixed. 3 coupon sales tailed, which all saw a negative reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator, although the 5Y relative strength improved from January (-0.8 vs -2.2 prior). The remaining 4 coupon sales traded through.
• MNI’s Treasury / Bill issuance calendar is regularly updated at this link.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_02.pdf