MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Jan 2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• 2023 nominal Treasury coupon issuance starts on Tue Jan 10 with $40B 3Y Note, followed by $32B 10Y Note on Wed Jan 11, and $18B 20Y Bond on Thu Jan 12.
• We see $222B nominal coupon issuance in Jan, rising to $231B in February (refunding month), in line with prior refunding guidance.
• Our expectation for the next quarterly refunding announcement in February is for no change to expected coupon sizes in the quarter (s) ahead. Our quarterly refunding preview will be published at end-January.
• December's auctions were mostly weak, with 5 of the 7 coupon auctions tailing versus their when-issued yields, and only 2 trading through.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2023_01.pdf

Source: MNI