MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: February 2026 - Refunding Preview

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February Refunding Preview: Streamlining Before Upsizing

• The February Refunding round starts on Monday Feb 2 (1500ET) with the Treasury’s update on financing requirements for the current (Jan-Mar) and next (Apr-Jun) quarters, at which it is expected to largely maintain its borrowing projections for the current quarter.  
• The main event is the full Refunding announcement on Wednesday Feb 4 (0830ET), in which any adjustments to the policy statement’s guidance on future auction size increases will be closely-watched as usual.
• The prevailing expectation is that there will be no change to the guidance "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters", but that was also the overwhelming expectation in the last refunding round which surprised with a tweak, adding that "Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes".
• Of course, it would be a shock if there were any changes to nominal coupons in this round given Treasury’s professed adherence to a “regular and predictable” approach. Our expectation remains that the next upsizing will be in November but the risks are skewed to a later increase. Consensus is fairly roughly split between  November 2026 and February 2027.