MNI US Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision Preview

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• Tuesday’s preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision is widely expected to imply large downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls growth through the twelve months to March 2025.
• We’ve seen estimates for a downward revision of at least 500k (using mid-point estimates when analysts quote a range) with a central guess of around -750k.
• History suggests the actual benchmark revision due with the Jan 2026 payrolls report will be smaller than what’s reported this week, but downward revisions could still be significant.
• Beware extrapolating these downward revisions beyond March 2025 after significant changes in the labor force since then. 
• Also recall that last year saw issues in the publication of this preliminary estimate, with a late release. 

Previous context of preliminary estimates vs final benchmark revisions: