MNI US OPEN - US Working for a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- VANCE SAYS U.S. IS WORKING FOR A MEETING WITH TRUMP, PUTIN AND ZELENSKY
- NVIDIA, AMD TO PAY US 15% OF CHINA AI CHIP SALES IN UNUSUAL MOVE
- NETANYAHU DOUBLES DOWN ON GAZA OFFENSIVE AFTER GLOBAL BACKLASH
- UK LABOUR SUPPLY GROWING "SHARPLY", SECOND FASTEST PACE IN NEAR 5 YEARS
Figure 1: Analysts' German Growth Projections Picking Up
NEWS
US/RUSSIA/UKRAINE (NYT): Vance Says U.S. Is Working for a Meeting With Trump, Putin and Zelensky
As President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia gets ready to meet with President Trump on Friday in Alaska, Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that the U.S. is working to set up a meeting that also includes President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. Mr. Vance said on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he did not think it would be a good idea for Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to meet before Mr. Trump’s meeting with Mr. Putin on Friday. But he suggested the three leaders could meet and that the U.S. wants to schedule such a meeting.
US/CHINA (BBG): Nvidia, AMD to Pay US 15% of China AI Chip Sales in Unusual Move
Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in a deal to secure export licenses, an unusual arrangement that may unnerve both US companies and Beijing. Nvidia plans to share 15% of the revenue from sales of its H20 AI accelerator in China, according to a person familiar with the matter. AMD will deliver the same share from MI308 revenues, the person added, asking for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The arrangement reflects US President Donald Trump’s consistent effort to engineer a financial payout for America in return for concessions on trade.
US (WSJ): Intel CEO Singled Out by Trump to Visit White House on Monday
CEO Lip-Bu Tan is set to visit the White House Monday after President Trump called for his removal last week over ties to Chinese businesses, according to people familiar with the matter. Tan is expected to have a wide-ranging conversation with Trump, with the intent of explaining his personal and professional background, the people said. He could also propose ways that the government and Intel could work together, they said.
ISRAEL (NYT): Netanyahu Doubles Down on Gaza Offensive After Global Backlash
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel defended on Sunday his government’s plan to launch a renewed offensive against Hamas in parts of Gaza, following a wave of international condemnation from traditional allies and critics at home. The Israeli military was preparing to expand its campaign to central Gaza as well as Gaza City, Mr. Netanyahu told reporters at a news conference in Jerusalem. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have sought shelter in those areas, hoping they would be safer.
IRAN (BBG): Iran Rejects Nuclear Inspections Ahead of New Talks With IAEA
Iran won’t allow nuclear site inspections when a senior International Atomic Energy Agency official visits Tehran on Monday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. “Until we reach a new agreement framework, no cooperation will begin” with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, he said in televised remarks. Araghchi didn’t identify the IAEA deputy director general who he said will be visiting. Iran is in contact with European countries over its nuclear program and nothing has been finalized on any resumption of talks with the US, he said.
CHINA (MNI INTERVIEW): China Fiscal Stimulus Key to Deflation Fight
A prominent economist and advisor discusses China's deflation challenges. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
RBA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): RBA to Look at Cash Rate Signalling Methods
We look at potential tweaks to the RBA’s communication methos. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
MNI RBA PREVIEW - AUGUST 2025: Cautious August Rate Cut
The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board is unlikely to surprise economists and the market again in August when its decision is announced on Tuesday August 12. Bloomberg consensus is unanimous forecasting a 25bp rate cut to 3.60% given the further moderation in underlying inflation in Q2 towards the band mid-point, which should increase confidence that it is now sustainably within target, and signs that the labour market has reached a turning point. Thus, the “timing” this month is likely to be more suitable than last month possibly resulting in a 9-0 vote after July’s 6-3 split in favour of holding.
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): New Zealand PM Doesn’t Expect to Win US Tariff Reprieve
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has conceded the government is unlikely to win a reduction in the tariff rate the US has applied to New Zealand goods. Officials were taken by surprise when the US on Aug. 1 announced New Zealand imports would be hit with a 15% tariff — up from the 10% initially signaled and higher than some of its competitors such as Australia and the UK, which are at 10%.
INDIA (BBG): RBI Said to Have Sold at Least $5 Billion to Boost Rupee
India’s central bank sold US dollars across both onshore and offshore currency markets this month to prop up the rupee as it weakened toward a record low, according to people familiar with the transactions. The Reserve Bank of India sold at least $5 billion worth of the US currency, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. The RBI didn’t immediately respond to an email requesting comment on the matter. If the trend persists, it could become RBI’s largest month of net dollar sales since January.
DATA
MNI UK LABOUR MARKET DATA PREVIEW: August 2025 Release
With a continually softening labour market a necessity for another quarterly cut in November, Tuesday's report will be keenly watched by the market. Unlike last month's release there is no obvious smoking gun to watch out for as the revision to the flash payrolls print for June has returned the focus back to the wider report. Our primary focus therefore will return to private regular average earnings which are expected at 4.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to June based on the MNI median and Bloomberg consensus (vs 4.88% prior).
UK DATA (MNI): UK Labour Supply Growing "Sharply", Second Fastest Pace in Near 5 Years
Ahead of tomorrow's headline labour market data, the release of the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs for July is also significant in providing any clue if a continually softening UK labour market - a necessity for another quarterly cut in November - is materializing. The report showed that the supply of labour continued to expand "sharply", with the rate softening only slightly from June for the second-fastest reading of that subcomponent since December 2020. Permanent placements meanwhile continue their "steep" decline due to "weak confidence around the economic outlook and greater pressure on budgets due to recent increases in payroll cost".
NORWAY DATA (MNI): CPI-ATE a Touch Higher Than Expected by Analysts but Inline With Norges
- NORWAY JUL CPI +0.8% M/M, +3.3% Y/Y
- NORWAY JUL UNDERLYING CPI +0.8% M/M, +3.1% Y/Y
July CPI-ATE at 3.12% Y/Y is higher than expected by consensus (3.0% Y/Y) but in line with Norges Bank's June MPR projections. Headline CPI (3.27% Y/Y) sees a larger upward surprise. Norges Bank were already expected to hold rates on Thursday. This reading should cement those expectations. Food prices rose 4.53% M/M and 5.57% Y/Y (vs 4.35% prior) - above some of the estimates we had seen, and likely the main driver behind the higher-than-expected CPI-ATE reading (at least versus analyst projections). Rents remain a source of persistent inflationary pressure, rising 0.32% M/M for the second consecutive month with an annual rate of 3.77% Y/Y (vs 3.78% prior). Services excluding rents eased to 3.80% Y/Y (vs 4.19% prior).
ITALY JULY FINAL HICP 1.7% Y/Y (MNI)
RATINGS: Slovakia Downgraded at DBRS, Affirmations Elsewhere on Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable
- S&P affirmed Austria at AA+; Outlook Stable
- Morningstar DBRS downgraded Slovakia to A (low), Trend changed to Stable
FOREX: Rally in EUR/NOK Capped by CPI, Schedule Quiet
- Early strength in EUR/USD has faded, with the pair now flat headed through to the NY crossover. Nonetheless, price remains within range of the new recovery high posted on Thursday. This keeps the recovery off the late July pullback low intact, working against the bearish backdrop that’s dominated the pullback from 1.1829. This week's schedule is light - leaving the USD the likely more active leg of the price this week.
- The rally in EUR/NOK may be capped by the Norwegian CPI print this morning, which saw Y/Y CPI surge to 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.0% - with underlying CPI also tilted higher. A corrective pullback in the price would first target 11.9326, the 23.6% retracement for the upleg off the late July high. NOK is now the strongest performing currency in G10.
- GBP is making further progress today: GBP/USD is through the Friday high and clear of 1.3450. This narrows the gap with the notable 50-dma at 1.3503 - clearance above which could signal a stronger upside reversal toward the cycle high printed at the beginning of July.
- Notably, jobs and wages data due tomorrow morning are the next hurdle here. MPC policymakers clearly remain concerned over perky wages and the feedthrough to prices: consensus looks for weekly earnings ex-bonus to hold at 5.0% this week - still considerably north of the pre-COVID norms.
- Focus today rests on speculation and expectations for the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for later this week. Ahead of the meeting in Alaska, reports this weekend suggested that Moscow and Washington are working toward a deal to progress with a ceasefire in exchange for a freezing of territorial gains - an agreement that will likely receive heavy criticism among European leaders, and the Ukrainian President himself.
- There remain questions over whether Zelenskyy himself could attend the meeting in some capacity - but regardless of the outcomes this week, the meeting represents a significant thawing in tensions between Russia and the West.
EGBS: Early Rally Fades, Volumes Light
- The early rally in Bund futures has faded, leaving RXU5 +5 ticks at 129.78. Volumes are light, with no regional data released this morning and weekend news around US-Russia talks having little net impact. While the contract moved back below the 130.00 handle of Friday, the bear trigger and notable support at 128.84 (July 25 low) was not tested.
- German yields are up to 1bp lower across the curve. The 10-year yield is at 2.68%, with the 2.70% handle the initial focus if upside momentum takes hold once again. This level held on Friday.
- A reminder that this week’s EGB net cash flow backdrop is favourable, with estimated net supply for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week. Finland holds an auction tomorrow, with Germany selling 10-year Bunds on Wednesday.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed. The BTP/Bund spread is attempting to consolidate below the 80bp handle, with a pullback in EUR vol metrics an important driver of narrowing since tariff uncertainty peaked in April.
- Today’s US data calendar is also light, leaving any major market moves likely to be dictated by headline flow.
GILTS: Off Highs, Still Firmer on the Day
Gilts have edged away from early session highs.
- Initial focus fell on this week’s Trump-Putin meeting and related hope surrounding a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, which would potentially provide a deflationary/disinflationary impulse.
- That was before a more sanguine market view on the potential for any such deal, owing to ongoing differences between the Russian & Ukrainian pre-requisites, pushed equities off session highs (which also proved to be bond supportive).
- Futures topped out at 92.37 and last trade +29 at 92.25.
- Initial resistance of note located at the August 5 high (92.84). Bulls look to regain momentum after a close below the 20-day EMA.
- Yields ~4bp lower across the curve, early flattening impulse eases.
- 2s and 10s move back into the lower half of the ranges witnessed since early June, 2s last 3.86%, 10s last 4.56%.
- 2s10s and 5s30s continue to trade around 70bp & 140bp, respectively.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0.
- BoE-dated OIS pricing 18bp of easing through year-end and 28bp through February (vs. 17bp & 27bp ahead of the gilt open), with the rally further out the curve and a soft REC report on jobs providing a modest dovish impulse.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, with tomorrow’s labour market report headlining the weekly schedule. Click for our full preview of that event: https://media.marketnews.com/UK_Labour_Preview_2025_08_Release_c044b96ee8.pdf
EQUITIES: Underlying Uptrend for E-Mini S&P Remains Intact
The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices holds, with the Eurostoxx 50 future above the 50-day EMA Monday morning. Last week's strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6351.18. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6231.77, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
- In China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 12.419 pts or +0.34% at 3647.547 and the HANG SENG ended 47.99 pts higher or +0.19% at 24906.81.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 82.72 pts or -0.34% at 24079.73, FTSE 100 higher by 21.51 pts or +0.24% at 9117.02, CAC 40 down 19.97 pts or -0.26% at 7723.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 9.98 pts or -0.19% at 5337.76.
- Dow Jones mini up 81 pts or +0.18% at 44360, S&P 500 mini up 1 pts or +0.02% at 6414.25, NASDAQ mini down 16.5 pts or -0.07% at 23697.
Time: 10:00 BST
COMMODITIES: WTI Future S/T Momentum Points Lower Following Last Week's Weakness
WTI futures traded poorly last week, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold is lower early Monday, however the price continues to benefit from the recent soft NFP print and broad USD weakness. This returns prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3332.8, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.23 or -0.36% at $63.63
- Natural Gas down $0.08 or -2.54% at $2.916
- Gold spot down $36.66 or -1.08% at $3362.01
- Copper down $2 or -0.45% at $445.1
- Silver down $0.41 or -1.06% at $37.9511
- Platinum down $12.19 or -0.92% at $1319.39
Time: 10:00 BST
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 11/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 11/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 12/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | * |  GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12/08/2025 | 0430/1430 | *** |  AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/08/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 1100/1200 | GB | BOE APF Quarterly Report | |
| 12/08/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 12/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 12/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 12/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 12/08/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
