MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: War Inflation Risks Dominate
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 20Y Bond Auction: Weak Sale, Indirects 5Y Low
Treasury futures decline (TYH6 -7 at 112-29) after $16B 20Y Bond auction (912810UT3) tailed - drawing a high yield of 4.664% vs 4.644% WI at the cutoff; 2.36x bid-to-cover (lowest since Nov 2024)vs. 2.86x prior.
- Peripheral stats: indirect take-up falls to 55.17% (lowest since Feb 2021) vs. 64.71% prior; direct bidder take-up slips to 27.24% from 29.08% prior; primary dealer take-up rebounds to 17.59% vs. 6.21% prior.
- The next 20Y auction (new) is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
FED: US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.664%; ALLOT 15.91%
- US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.664%; ALLOT 15.91%
- US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 17.59% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 27.24% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 55.17% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.36
EURUSD TECHS: Doji Candle Highlights Possible Reversal
- RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.1929 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.1815 @ 16:19 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.1805 Low Feb 17
- SUP 2: 1.1766 Low Feb 06 and key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 -0 27 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.1670 Low Jan 22
The recovery in EURUSD Tuesday from its intraday low highlights a short-term reversal pattern - a doji candle. The latest pullback is considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The candle pattern, if correct, signals the end of the corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open 1.1961 and 1.2007, Fibonacci retracement points. Support to watch lies at 1.1805, Tuesday’s low, ahead of 1.1766, the Feb 6 low.
