MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Hike Odds Surge On Booming Jobs, CPI Next

President Trump said Iran agreed to have no nuclear weapons, speaking from the oval office

• “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won’t, and they’ve agreed to that, among other things,” Trump tells reporters at the White House
• “We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” he says.

We have published our preview of the upcoming US Payrolls report, found here. 

Refer to the publication for:

• MNI analysis of what to watch for this month
• Dispersion of analyst views across nonfarm payrolls growth, the unemployment rate and wage growth
• Pertinent detailed comments from analysts across the spectrum of views
• MNI analysis of a range of alternate labor indicators
• A net hawkish build-up to the release despite Wednesday's relief rally on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below. Mixed trade on net: early flow leaned bullish with put sales and call buyers; second half saw the opposite, note large short Dec call spd sale. Underlying futures well bid but off highs as optimism over US/Iran de-escaltion cooled as the day wore on. Projected rate pricing vs. late Tuesday lvls (*): Jun'26 at -1.5bp, Jul'26 at -3.1bp (-3.1bp), Sep'26 at -4.3bp (-2.0bp), Oct'26 at -2.1bp (+1.9bp), Dec'26 +.1bp (+6.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -10,000 SFRN6 96.87/97.12 call spds, 0.5 ref 96.35
  • -50,000 0QZ6 97.50/98.00 call spds around 2.75, reportedly an exit
  • -4,000 0QK6 96.00/96.12 put spds, 1.5 ref 96.27
  • +10,000 0QV6 95.87/96.18 put spds, 8.5 ref 96.39
  • -5,000 SFRN6 96.12 puts, 10.5 ref 96.34
  • -2,000 SFRH7 97.00/98.00 1x2 call spds, 2.0 ref 96.25
  • 5,350 SFRM6 96.31/96.43/96.56 call flys, 3.25 ref 96.37
  • 6,000 SFRM6 96.25/96.31 put spds, .25 ref 96.37
  • -2,000 SFRU6 96.18/96.31 put spds, 2.5 ref 96.36
  • -2,000 0QM6 95.62/95.75/96.00 broken put flys, 2.0 ref 96.29
  • Block, 2,500 SFRZ6 95.87/96.12 put spds, 6.0
  • +4,500 SFRN6 95.93/96.06/96.18/96.31 put condors, 2.0 ref 96.355
  • +2,000 SFRU6 96.12/96.25/96.37/96.50 put condors, 7.5 vs. 96.265/0.04%
• Treasury Options:
  • +20,000 TYM6 110 puts, 11 ref 110-26.5, total volume over 105k
  • +34,000 wk5 TY 111.75 calls, 9 vs. 110-18/0.15%, appr +41k on day
  • +20,000 wk2 TY 110.25/110.5 put spds, 4
  • 2,600 FVM6 107.75 puts, 17.5 ref 107-27.75
  • 3,600 FVM6 107.25 puts, 7.5 ref 107-27.5
  • +30,000  TYM6 110 puts, 12 vs. 110-25.5/0.10%
  • +2,600 TYN6 110 puts, 36 
  • 1,800 FVM6 107/108.25 put spds ref 108-00.75
  • 2,000 FVM6 107.5/107.75 put spds, 6 ref 107-28.75
  • -1,500 FVN6 108.5/109.5 call spds, 2 ref 107-27
  • -2,000 TYQ6 108 puts, 23 ref 110-14.5
  • -4,300 wk2 TY 109.75/110.25 put spds, 4
  • over -10,000 TYM6 109/110 put spds, 11 ref 110-18.5 to -17.5
  • +3,000 TYN6 114.5 calls, 3 ref 110-08.5
  • +5,000 TYM6 111.5/112.25 call spds, 5 ref 110-15
  • -1,250 TYN6 110 straddles, 147
  • +4,300 wk2 TY 109.75/110.25 put spds, 11 ref 110-09