MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Hawkish Shift Ahead Of Warsh’s Arrival

• Crude has found further support today, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Planned US-Iran talks in Islamabad appear to have been put on hold, while Iranian attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf and an ongoing US blockade prevent flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI June 26 is up by 3.6% at $92.9/bbl.
• Trump has bought the US/Iran situation an indefinite extension with his latest ceasefire efforts, the first without a clear timeline.
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshikian posted on X stating he welcomes dialogue and agreement. However, a senior Iranian official said the country rejects negotiations conducted under pressure.
• For WTI futures, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $101.17, the Apr 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• On the downside, initial support is at the 20-day EMA at $89.78. Below here, key support is at the 50-day EMA, at $83.75, a clear break of which is required to highlight a stronger short-term reversal.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have edged higher today, with spot gold up by 0.4% at $4,737/oz and silver rising by 1.4% to $77.8/oz.
• For gold, recent gains appear to be a correction, although a short-term bull cycle is intact for now. A clear break of the 50-day EMA, at $4,781, would signal scope for an extension towards $4,914.9, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• On the downside, initial firm support lies at $4,554.2, the Apr 2 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.03/160.46 High Apr 7 / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 159.25 @ 15:44 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 157.59 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 157.04 100-DMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

Prices dropped sharply Friday on Iran de-escalation, pushing price through the 50-day EMA support to touch the 50-dma at 157.66 for the first time since early February. Further weakness here needs to test 156.46 to knock trend monitor studies lower, keeping the broader outlook positive for now, and highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. The recovery from last week’s low reinforces current conditions and scope is seen for a climb towards 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. 

May'26 Treasury options expire Friday, latest open interest as of Tuesday's close below. Decent open interest for several strikes in 5s and 10s in focus. Options that are 0.5 tic in-the-money (0.25 tic for 5-, 2-yr opt's) are auto-exercised. Underlying futures are modestly weaker this morning, off overnight lows.