MNI: US July Existing Home Sales Rebound 2.0% To 4.01M SAAR

U.S. sales of existing homes increased 2.0% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday, against market expectations for a decline. Sales year-over-year are up 0.8%, the weakest since June 2023.

"With the Fed anticipated to make a rate cut in September, and probably another rate cut later this year, and more so in 2026, one should anticipate somewhat lower mortgage rates than what it is today, maybe goes down to 6%," from 6.72% today, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun told reporters. 

The decline will likely be limited, he said. "Mortgage rates may not decline even with a Fed rate cut if there is high inflation, and if Treasury debt issuance becomes large." (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Should Hold, Focus On Inflation - Emmons) 

The median price has increased 0.2% over the year to USD422,400 but was down 2.4% in the month of July. There was a 0.6% increase in unsold inventory month-over-month to 1.55 million units, equal to 4.6 months’ supply. According to the NAR's confidence index survey, 16% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in seller traffic in next 3 months, down from 23% in June.