MNI US Employment Report: Mostly Steady Cooling Amidst The Fog

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Executive Summary

• The latest jobs growth data has at best continued the tepid trends seen in BLS releases prior to the government shutdown.
• Layoff announcements jumped in October but initial jobless claims remain low for now.
• The Chicago Fed’s u/e rate tracker has increased marginally but is still below the median FOMC forecast.
• Job openings are slowly pushing lower but not materially different to August JOLTS data, although the start of a potentially flatter Beveridge Curve and an already low hire rate amplifies downside risks.
• Powell noted that some of the FOMC think it’s time to take a step back and see how the disconnect between weak labor indicators and stronger growth plays out.
• That was part of a FOMC press conference that drove an increase in uncertainty on December rate cut prospects from what had been seen as mostly priced, with talk of slowing down in the “fog”.
• An imminent end to the shutdown could mean we get September’s nonfarm payrolls release within the next week. The BLS Secretary has said the report will be issued "as soon as this government opens”.